by Angry Andy
Sleepless In Seattle
Being a fan of San Francisco, Miami Heat and Aston Villa, I’ve had my share of heartache over the past few years. In the case of the 49ers, you can look no further back than last year's championship game. The failure to convert 3rd downs combined with Kyle Williams was easily one of my worst sports losses ever. A few months before that the Miami Heat were unceremoniously dumped out of the championship by Dallas.
However, the expectations for those years were not championships. Miami’s new team needed a season in my book and Jim Harbaugh was only starting out as Niners head coach with limited time to prepare his team thanks to the strike that threatened the season. Although 49ers were not playing last week, the events that occurred hurt almost as much because I expected to win.
Denver's defense shut down the Bengals late in the 4th, making Cincinnati kick a field goal and attempt the onside kick, thus saving my accumulator. Chicago easily dispatched The Titans, Ravens and Lions both covered, as did Baltimore (though they left it late).
So it came down to Minnesota and Seattle. With Adrian Peterson scoring a touchdown early, I knew this was my week! Finally I had predicted all five games. In my head: I was writing the column, spending my winnings and downing that sweet, tasty victory beer. It was only till mid way through the 3rd that I had realized . . . I backed Christian Ponder, in Century Link Field. Idiot!
That game hurt as bad as most this season, something I never though possible for a team I didn’t support (only Giants destroying my Niners a few weeks back was worse). With the league past the half way point I thought, what would I have backed in this game at the start of the season. And how many teams, besides the obvious pick in the Colts, have changed peoples perception of them since the season started.
Back To The Future
Before the start of the season, I recorded a podcast (Available HERE) with @AMTRick previewing the NFL season. Looking back to the past to see how teams have faired since day 1 and what my original perception was:
AFC East
Podcast Pick (to top division): New England Patriots
The talking point of the division was when would Tebow emerge as the starting Quarterback for the Jets (3-5). Tebow has yet to emerge and the Jets playoff hopes are all but over. The surprise of this division, and most definitely one of the surprises of the season, is the rookie quarterback of the Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins (4-4) could sneak a wildcard spot in the AFC which has been poor in comparison to the NFC this year. With losses already to the Cardinals, Ravens and Seattle plus dodging a bullet against the Jets, the Patriots don’t look like the determined team that is craving to regain their throne after the Superbowl loss. They're weak in the secondary position (defense covering wide receivers) and I see last year going down as their final chance in the Belichick/Brady era for a championship. The (3-5) Buffalo Bills are exactly what we expected from the Bills.
Current Pick: New England Patriots
AFC North
Podcast Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers (5-3) had a very slow start to the season losing their first 3 of 5 games. Made worse by the fact that two of those losses were to the Raiders and Titans. Ravens (6-2) looked to be running away with the division, finding ways to win (or, in the case of the Dallas Cowboys, the other team found ways to lose) but their record flatters them in my book. They’ve been lucky in a few games and with injuries on defense, expectations fall on the shoulders of Joe Flacco. After reaching the AFC Championship game last season on mostly defense, I don’t see Flacco being able to take them to the next level. “They (Cleveland Browns) will not win the division, I will hang myself by my nut sake if they win the division.” Bold words from yours truly in the podcast but with the Browns 2-7, my nuts are (thankfully) safe. Bengals are not too much of a factor once again. Sticking with my pick at the start of the season and the logic that Big Ben is better than Flacco.
Current Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (Wildcard: Baltimore Ravens)
AFC South
Podcast Pick: Houston Texans
At the start of the season, I wrote off Luck and the Colts (6-3) but man what a feel good story has this become. Nobody gave the Colts a chance. With head coach Chuck Pagano being diagnosed with leukaemia a few weeks into the season, this team has come together like no other team in the league. The Colts have become everybody’s second favorite team. Andrew Luck has put up some phenomenal numbers and is not only one of the best rookie Quarterbacks in the league but one of the best Quarterbacks in the league. I definitely favor them to get the wildcard spot and, ala the Broncos last year, pull off the first round upset of the wild card. Texans will still win the division, they just have too much on offense and that defense is getting really good. Good enough that they could have the total package this year to win it all...
Current Pick: Houston Texans (Wildcard: Indianapolis Colts)
AFC West
Podcast Pick: Denver Broncos
Talking point from the start of the season was how good would Peyton Manning be. The answer to that question is that half way through the season he’s many people’s pick for MVP. Manning, after a slow start, has been exceptional this year. The thought process for me at the start of the season was that if they could make the playoffs with Tebow, then they could with one of the greatest Quarterbacks of our generation in Peyton Manning. This could be Rivers last season with San Diego (4-4) who actually started off well in September, for a change, but looks worse as the season has progressed. The Chiefs (1-7) have been awful this year. Raiders (3-5) have had a few nice wins but this is definitely the Broncos (5-3) division.
Current Pick: Denver Broncos
NFC East
Podcast Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
The New York Giants (6-3) usually peak late in the season but have had some defining wins early this year, most notably against San Francisco. Already 2.5 games clear of their nearest team, the Eagles, the Giants should top this division and push on for the bye week in a division that I thought would be a lot closer, especially at this stage of the season. The Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) have been poor this year, losing their last 4 games in what must signal the end of the Andy Reid era. Cowboys (3-5) have been hit and miss this year as have the Redskins (3-6) despite some electrifying play from Quarterback Robert Griffin III. The Eagles-Cowboys game tonight is a must win for both teams. A 4-5 team could still reach the playoffs but a 3-6, I think, is done. Sounds like a Loser Leaves Town match up for both head coaches.
Current Pick: New York Giants
NFC North
Podcast Pick: Green Bay Packers
This division was what I thought the NFC East would be more like. Four good teams that could easily have three teams advance to the playoffs. The Lions (4-4) had a slow start to the season but may actually pip the Vikings now that Minnesota have question marks over the quarterback position. Adrian Peterson has had an outstanding year thus far which is good for Chicago fans (not the Bears, the Bulls as their start player Derrick Rose had a very similar injury). I strongly liked the Bears chances at the start of the season even if @AMTRick “didn’t see it” (@AMTRick Edit: Still don't, they've had a good run and are tough to beat...kinda like Newcastle at the start of last year's Premier League. But can they win it all? Pfft. Let's have this conversation again after the Wildcard Round). The Bears defense has dominated opponents throughout the year and are on course to have the best defense in fantasy history. Fantasy points doesn’t win championships, The Packers know all about that. Rodgers is hitting his stride and I see the Bears dropping a few games if the defense doesn’t create enough turnovers. Chicago remind me of the 49ers last season, good, but not good enough just yet.
Current Pick: Green Bay Packers (Wildcard: Chicago Bears)
NFC South
Podcast Pick: Atlanta Falcons
As John Madden said during the week, the Atlanta Falcons (8-0) are “solid”. There’s no question that they'll top the division. But the team is too concerned with wanting respect for this record thus far. I see them going out in the playoffs after getting the first round bye. The Falcons will suffer from not getting stiffer opposition throughout the year. If they play New York in the playoffs, the Giants will stun them like they did the Packers last year. Cam Newton has dropped off the radar after his impressive numbers last year for the Panthers (2-6). This is a learning curve for Newton and it will be interesting to see if he can dust him self off for next season. If the Saints (3-5) have shown anything this year it is how important Sean Payton is to the organization. Drew Brees has been great, the rest of the team not so much. And finally to the worst nickname in football, “teach me how to Dougie Dougie, teach me how to Dougie,” it’s the Muscle Hamster, Doug Martin, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4). Running back Doug Martin has been a godsend to fantasy owners and Tampa have done well this year. The Buccs are definitely still in contention for a wild card spot.
Current Pick: Atlanta Falcons
NFC West
Podcast Pick: San Francisco 49ers
It’s the 49ers (6-2) division baby! Bad loss to the Giants aside, the Niners have been winning games this year with no signs of regression that a lot of people had previously figured. At the same time, the Niners are finding their rhythm. Michael Crabtree is starting to develop into a starting wide receiver and Randy Moss is showing that he still has something to offer. The 49ers are finding the right time to peak while still winning games. Formula for success in this league. Seattle Seahawks (5-4) have been great this year. Russell Wilson is effective, at home that is. Running back Marshawn Lynch is a machine that takes multiple players to put him down. After a 4-0 start, the Cardinals have been nothing short of appalling, losing 5 straight with no answers forthcoming from their current Quarterback, John Skelton. Skelton is not the man to turn this franchise around. The Rams (3-5) lost the Wembley game 45-7 to the Patriots, need I say more!
Current Pick: San Francisco 49ers (Wildcard: Seattle Seahawks)
So if my current picks turn out to be right, it means that I was wrong in only one division. That, of course, being the division where I did not back the Superbowl Champions! Had I put an 8 team accumulator on this, it would have hurt big time.
Any Given Sunday
Podcast Pick (to win the Superbowl): San Francisco 49ersFor the NFC Championship game I’m picking the 49ers to beat the Giants in a revenge match up. Winning or losing a regular season game does not make up for losing to the Giants last year. Alex Smith has more weapons on offense. Manning is starting to lose form now, not that if will be an issue come January but I just don’t see the Giants repeating.
In the AFC Championship, I’m going for the experienced team that knows how to win Superbowls. Which means it is not Houston but the
And what a contest that would leave us. Two of the most decorated franchises ever in the Superbowl for the first time ever against each other. There’s only one other time that I’ve been this confident in my team winning it all and that’s this years Miami Heat after losing to the Mavs. January 1995, the last time the 49ers were in the Superbowl, 18 years in the making.
Current Pick: San Francisco 49ers
On to this weeks picks:
(HOME TEAM in Caps):
Giants (-4.0) over BENGALS
The New York Giants are going to be looking to bounce back after last weeks loss to the Steelers. Quarterback Eli Manning has been in a slump lately. He’s had no touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games. Luckily for Manning, he’s going up against the Bengals this week, a team not great on defense against the pass (allowing on average 240 yards a game). The defense is going to be all over Quarterback Andy Dalton, who was sacked 5 times last week. The Giants are 3rd best in the league on sacks, so expect a few turnovers from an under pressure Dalton. The Giants have a tough schedule in the second half of the season, they’ll want to ensure they build a gap here against the winner of the Cowboys-Eagles game who will still have an outside shot at the playoffs.
BUCCANEERS (-3.0) over Chargers
There’s more behind this pick than wanting to have meaning behind doing the Dougie. I don’t see the Muscle Hamster (such a godawful nickname) getting the same amount of fantasy points this week. But I do see the threat of the running game opening up the passing game for Quarterback Josh Freeman and the ex-Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson who could have a big game against his former team. This game will serve as another prime example as to how NFC teams are much better than their AFC counterparts this season
Broncos (-4.0) over PANTHERS
The Panthers got a decent win last week against the Redskins, but don’t let that fool you into thinking they are back on track. Peyton Manning has thrown 3 touchdown passes in each of his last 5 games. The Broncos have won 4 straight and are shaping up well on defense too, ranking 10th in passing yards allowed this season. It could be another frustrating night for the Panthers triggerman Cam Newton.
Falcons (-2.5) over SAINTS
The Saints routed the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, if you take a look at the scoreboard. This game would have been a lot closer if Michael Vick didn’t throw that interception on the Saints 1 yard line to be returned for a touchdown. The Atlanta Falcons will slip up this season but the fact remains that they are playing another team below .500. I think the Saints can keep if close but Matt Ryan and co. will be too good offensively against a poor Saints defense that is on it’s way to creating new records in yards allowed this season
SEAHAWKS (-6.0) over Jets
Seattle are perfect at home thus far this season. And this is not an Atlanta Falcons perfect record we are talking about. Unlike Atlanta, Seattle have beaten New England, Minnesota, Green Bay and Dallas at home. The Jets on the other hand have struggled. Their last game, two weeks ago, resulted in a 30-9 loss to the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez has struggled and going up against one of the best defenses in the league is not your ideal starting point for turning your season around. The Seahawks will reckon they are still with in a shout of catching the Niners in the division which is much more believable than the war cries from the Jets camp for playoffs.
Plus:
Niners (-12.5) over RAMS
For the first time in a month, my 49ers are playing on a Sunday. And they're going up against a Rams team who allowed 45 points against the Patriots. If Sam Bradford could only get one TD against that New England secondary then Batman and Robin (linebackers Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman, I assume they both think their Batman) are going to have a lot of fun against the Rams offense. I expect the Niners to create a few turnovers and Alex Smith to have another good game against NFC West opposition.
Another great day of football in store; plus many people’s preview of the Superbowl on in the late game tonight between the Texans and the Bears.
Happy Football People!
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 26-26
Accumulator: 0-9
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