As a kid playing soccer, there was one game situation that I dreaded most: semi-finals. Losing the semi-final when you are one game away from the big one is more heartbreaking in my book than never getting to the final at all. Sure no one wants to come second, but to miss out on that opportunity to compete is a much bigger burden; to sit at home when the final is on and know that you were so close to the big game!
And that is the moment we are arriving at this Championship Sunday.
Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Tom Brady. Two of these Quarterbacks will be sitting at their homes in two weeks while the Superbowl takes place in New Orleans.
The bookies favorites to reach the Superbowl are the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers, setting up a rematch on what was arguably the best regular season game this year. And what a match up that would be. Tom Brady looking to cement his legacy as the greatest of all time against his childhood team that was once led by a four-time Superbowl winner (and Brady’s childhood idol), Joe Montana. What better way for the 49ers to get back to the promised land, in their Quest For Six, than to beat the best franchise in the last decade?
However, sport does not always work out that way. While the Atlanta Falcons are a team that have been written off by most, they did beat the Seattle Seahawks...a very similar team to the 49ers. Matt Ryan may have finally found his stride in January.
The Ray Lewis-led Baltimore Ravens are on a mission to win one more Championship before #52 retires. And how the Ravens fans would crave to have Lewis’ last dance following a Superbowl victory in New Orleans.
Last week, I called each game exactly right save for one point that cost me my accumulator. That point came thanks to a Russell Wilson-inspired comeback against the Falcons. In the end the Seahawks were undone by two exceptional Matt Ryan passes and a boneheaded timeout by Seattle coach Pete Carroll.
As I have mentioned plenty of times before, icing a kicker as he is about to take his kick is one of the stupidest moves an opposing coach can do. What kicker would not like a free shot at a long range field goal so they can aim and direct the ball better a second time around? The result was a missed “free attempt” followed by a successful kick which meant the road to the Superbowl was going through Atlanta.
A similar boneheaded move happened in the AFC involving the number one seed. This Sunday’s other Championship game could perhaps have been played in Denver if the Broncos had allowed Peyton Manning to do what he does best. With 31 seconds and 2 time outs left, the Broncos played it safe and kneeled the football. Why not attempt a few short passes to get the offense rolling. There was plenty of time left on the clock and there are fewer quarterbacks in the league that you would want in that position than Peyton Manning. Though it’s not like the Broncos have had a winning touchdown drive that lasted less than 31 seconds in playoff situation right?
In the playoffs, playing it safe does not get the job done. Risks need to be made. Sometimes extreme risks pays off and looks ingenious (see below). But to simply play it safe and rely on a coin toss for potentially good field position is just simply not good enough.
The Baltimore Ravens were an easy pick for me to cover the spread in that game. I just couldn’t fully back the win. And I never would have thought, in that situation, that the Broncos would simply just kneel. So are the Ravens a team of destiny like the 2007 New York Giants that limped into the playoffs? As much as I would love that to be the case, I see a stronger reference to a recent playoff team; 2009 Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings, lead at the time by Brett Favre, went into the Championship game against the Saints and I firmly believed that Favre was finally going to go out winning the big one one more time. However, like an old wrestling legend in his last match, the old lion always jobs out (loses):
(Rick edit: Unless said wrestling giant is - one of Angry Andy's favourites - Hulk Hogan. Ahem...)
It’s rare that the legend retires with the Superbowl, most of the greats never achieve this. The exceptions are rare: John Elway and, in recent years, Jermone Bettis retiring after a Superbowl victory in his native Detroit with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Ravens and Patriots have traded victories over the past number of years, including playoffs and it's fast becoming one of the most intense rivalries in sports.
I still think this is going to be a close game. How will the absence of Gronk affect the Patriots? The Pats averaged 35 PPG (points per game) with Gronk and 34 PPG without him. The fact is that Tom Brady is one of the best that has ever played the game and has proved time after time that he can find any man open. It’s rare that superstar receivers come through New England. Gronk, Randy Moss . . . . Care to name a few more?
Brady and Belickick might find another way to win but it’ll be another tight game, therefore:
Ravens (+8.0) over PATRIOTS
Jim Harbaugh is labelled by a lot of followers as one of the best (if not the best) coaches in the NFL. It’s hard to believe that, given the same position the Broncos had, that Harbaugh would have taken a knee. Harbaugh is an aggressive coach. Case in point is going for a fourth and one when the Niners were just outside field goal range in the third quarter and decided to go for it. However Harbaugh only intended to draw the Packers offsides to get the automatic first down which worked to perfection. He is one of the smartest coaches in the game because he can think a few steps ahead. Like when the Niners defeated the Seahwaks earlier in the season and Harbaugh decided to decline the safety points as he knew it meant the game was over despite the safety meaning that the Niners would take a two score lead with only seconds left.
But his biggest coaching decision and one that very few other coaches would have made is one at the quarterback position. Yet the, perhaps harsh, replacement of Alex Smith with Colin Kaepernick is looking more ingenious by the week. I am at a loss for words at how Kaepernick easily dispatched the Packers
But the logic behind the quarterback change brings me back to a sports loss that was more painful than any semi-final that I ever personally played in:
(Rick edit: Including the semi-final you wrestled in in the Irish Whip Wrestling King of the Gym tournament? I was there, man, that match was pret-ty painful to watch. Oh, sorry, you were getting reminiscent. Continue...)
January 22 2012
The 49ers battled the Giants in Candlestick for the final spot in the Superbowl against the Patriots. A lot of people, myself included, will have discussed Kyle Williams knee (You can find the damn link yourself!).
However another reason the Niners did not advance was due to their inefficiency to convert on third downs. Kaepernick gives the Niners more options to deliver. I think the threat of opening up the game with a large gain on the ground is going to give the Niners receivers, particularly Michael Crabtree, the opportunity to step up and get open down field. Frank Gore is going to need to have a big game as well for the Niners along with La Michael James being effective on the ground. If that one-two combination gets off to a great start, then it could be a night that the 49ers have waited for 18 years.
The Giants loss was the worst loss that I have ever experienced as a sports fan. True redemption for the Niners comes Sunday. It will either be the Harbaugh bowl or Belichick versus Harbaugh!
As confident as I am, I will be shitting a Golden Gate-sized brick come Sunday at 8. Not that you needed any confirmation, but:
Niners (-3.5) over FALCONS
*Deep Breathes* Happy Football People!
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