Week 3: Showtime

Last week was a painful reminder that the accumulator is a cruel, merciless mistress that should be approached with extreme caution. Every bit of logic, every form guide would've told you that I was onto a winner with my carefully crafted football picks going all over Europe to find good value. Then Everton couldn't make their dominance count even after West Brom had heroic keeper Ben Foster substituted with an injury, Elche refused to lie down against Sociedad, United and Chelsea participated in a 0-0 draw that demonstrates exactly why Americans hate football and City capitulated, randomly, at Cardiff. Even my only successful pick saw Hertha limp over the line against a Hamburg side who've been having their own capitulation issues this year.

It was a bad week. But, as I've explained before, we play the long game here on The Accumulator. My income for 2013/14 may be €0 so far, but that's just one clever win away from changing dramatically. So let's look to the week ahead and, instead of taking unnecessary risks, try and get a bit creative in looking for value. This week I tackle the Premier League, UFC 164 and the GAA All-Ireland Senior Football Semi-Final. A €5 bet on this 4-way acca could win you €168 with Paddy Power.

This Weekend's Quick Picks

Premier League
West Ham vs. Stoke - West Ham @ evens

A very simple equation here: I remain unconvinced by Stoke under Mark Hughes, and I am 100% on the bandwagon for West Ham under Sam Allardyce. Whereas last season's goal was to clearly make them tough to beat in the hope that Kevin Nolan or the likes would pop up and nick a winner, this year they seem to have that added confidence and nerve to win the niggly games like this. Especially at home. In other words, they're Stoke two years ago. Stoke of 2013/14 don't seem to know exactly what they are yet, and Upton Park is not a place to go on a journey of self-discovery. Come ready to play or get ready to leave with your tail between your legs.

There are a few good value draws available this week, and I really wanted to go for one to give this bet a tasty reward, but I couldn't make my mind up. Norwich/Southampton was in the betslip before I bottled it, recalling the former's lifeless upset against Hull last week.  Palace/Sunderland appear too evenly-matched to call, but are both combustible and unpredictable sides (especially with Palace at home and Sunderland managed by Di Canio), and the same predicaments put me off Cardiff/Everton, Newcastle/Fulham and West Brom/Swansea. But if you fancy risking it on a gut feeling to spice it up, feel free to sub one of those in instead of/as well as this tip.

UFC 164: Lightweight Championship Match
Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis - Bendo @ 5/6

This one is a risk, I admit that. On paper, these two are such a great, stylistic match-up: Pettis has a slight advantage while striking, Henderson is a marginally better grappler. Bendo has had more five-round experience, but Pettis finished stronger (with that showtime kick; 0:35 below) in the fifth round of their first fight. However that was before Henderson won the Lightweight Championship and he's since come through gruelling (not to mention controversial) defences against Frankie Edgar and Gilbert Melendez. That's what sways me here. Pettis has the power and accuracy to end the fight at any given moment, and a size/reach advantage, but Bendo is also well versed at grinding it out now against dangerous opposition. Lightning rarely strikes twice in these rematches, so while it wouldn't surprise me if Pettis had the balls to look for another showtime kick, I don't think we'll be seeing another highlight reel finish. I do think we'll be seeing another Bendo-special, though, in that he'll retain while yet again completely splitting the UFC audience who'll call for an immediate rematch. If you fancy a separate side-bet (to possibly recoup your money because you, like me, were stupid enough to bet on the three most closely contended sporting contests of the week), there's good value @ 15/8 on these two winning Fight of the Night Honours.

Premier League

Liverpool vs. Man Utd - under 2.5 goals @ 5/6

Liverpool are the most massively underrated side in the Premier League right now. Despite them showing impressive resolve to win their first two matches, while their best player is suspended, nobody...not one person...is even considering the fact that they may challenge the Top 4 this season. In that respect, a loss to United this Sunday might actually prove beneficial in the long-term, allowing Brendan Rodgers the time and space to continue to develop this promising-looking project that seems to be peaking at the exact time when there aren't any clear dominant sides in the league. That said, who the fuck knows what's going to happen, really? All we can go on is that Liverpool have stuck to a strategy of getting their goal then defending the lead vigorously, while David Moyes rightly exercised caution on Monday against Chelsea. My gut tells me this has 1-1 draw written all over it, but then again it's also saying that just about any outcome is possible too. Either way, Moyes will want to have his feet under the table a bit more before going balls-to-the-wall against dangerous opposition (and he's right, any mishap early on will heap unnecessary pressure on his shoulders as the TV cameras start panning to a displeased Alex Ferguson sitting in the stands) and Rodgers will feel much the same. Whatever happen, all the evidence is pointing to a low-scoring affair.

GAA All-Ireland Senior Football Semi-Final
Dublin vs. Kerry - Kerry/Dublin double result @ 4/1

Half-time/full-time predictions always seem like a great idea at the time...before falling apart catastrophically. But this isn't based on just a hunch like most double result bets, this is exactly what the form book is telling us. The sides' early championship clashes were too one-sided to give us any real gauge on their quality, but once they reached the provincial finals a strange pattern emerged. Kerry were ruthless is rushing to a 1-10 to 0-6 lead against Cork, before being pegged back to two points in a nervy finish. Similarly they blitzed a hapless Cavan side in the first-half before The Breffni Men threatened to come back in the second and ended with their dignity intact.

Dublin, on the other hand, have been winning things the Man Utd way. Their conditioning, on top of the quality that clearly runs throughout the side, has been key in seeing them reach this stage. Both Meath and Cork had Dubs fans looking for a change of underwear at half-time, only for the Dubs to pull away once the legs started to get weary.

All of that points to what? You guessed it, Kerry coming out strong but fading late, just as Dublin start to hit their stride. And at 4/1 you don't get much better value tips, grounded in logic and form, for an accumulator. It's the best odds on show this week and yet, if it had to come down to one match to pay for pizza and beer next week as the NFL season kicks off, I'd be most content with this one.

Rick Nash is a former pro-wrestler who currently DJs for hire, makes piss-poor sports bets and has a community radio show. Altogether, he's a real bum, and you should be ashamed of yourself if you thought this piece was in any way insightful or entertaining. But still, follow him on Twitter and stuff.