If you've been following me on Twitter, you'll know that this has been a rough few weeks for me, gambling-wise.
I knew from the offset that it'd either be glorious or disastrous, with four Premier League gameweeks in quick succession and four lucrative accumulators potentially wiping my Christmas debt away from me. Unfortunately, what ended up transpiring was that my Internet will probably get cut off due to non-payment. Turns out that the only apocalypse that happened in 2012 took place within my bank account.
And yet, due to the one accumulator win that I've had, I've still managed to turn a profit for the 2012/13 season so far.
THAT is why I must persist. THAT is why, instead of seeking help from Gambler's Anonymous (it's...pretty bad when you gamble away household bills, isn't it? It's, at least I'd imagine, not good), I've instead created an entire website devoted to sharing my lack of better judgement with the world!
In the final gameweek of this Christmas spell, I'm trying to apply some sense and reason in what has become the gambling equivalent of a relegation 6-pointer. Which is why I'm ONLY going for 'sure things' (when you say that something's a sure thing in gambling, that's also not good, isn't it?).
Sound boring, eh? Well what if I raised the stakes and told you that said 'sure thing' bet was also a DOUBLE SPORT, NEW YEAR'S DAY 2013 EXTRAVAGANZA BET!!!!!!!!
Let's do this. My internet may be on the way out, but I'm pretty sure I can save the remnants of my dignity with this one bet.
THE BET: 6-way accumulator; 2 sports; €5 returns €114ish; all odds via Paddy Power.
WEST BROM (Evens) vs. Fulham
My gut tells me that this is a risky bet, just because West Brom, Fulham and Swansea are pretty much the same team this season, right? Depending on the day, you'll have at least one of these on featured fifth in the Match of the Day running order as the 'plucky side who punches above their weight' story. It's as if they're all playing off for who can be the next Everton. So, conceivably, any of these three can beat the rest depending on who's turn it is to shine. We saw as much when Fulham left a rally too late at home to Swansea, while West Brom fell at Man Utd. So both are due.
Fulham won the reverse fixture 3-0, but that was during happier times for them. They've earned only 4 points from a possible 18 in December and will be missing Schwarzer, Duff and Diarra for this fixture. With West Brom at home, it looks as close to a 'sure thing' as any fixture between the wannabe-Everton trio can be.
MAN CITY (1/3) vs. Stoke
Hang on...Stoke haven't lost since 3rd November??! One of my golden gambling rules is that you don't bet on a side who are 'due a win/loss'...but man, they're due a loss. And they almost got it on Saturday, despite being at home to struggling Southampton. City, on the other hand, have lost twice in that period. But they're at home, will still have the bit between their teeth after the losses to Sunderland and Man United and Mario Balotelli is injured: leaving the side as settled and drama-free as it will be for a while (Yaya Toure is off to the African Cup of Nations after this). Even Tony Pulis would probably be content to write this off if you told him City were taking the three points.
SWANSEA (8/13) vs. Aston Villa
I usually enjoy mocking Angry Andy when his sports teams fail (and since he also follows the 49ers and Miami Heat, I don't get enough of a chance to do so these days), but Villa are in a rut so miserable that it even depresses me. With such a young team, they've little to no capacity to change their fortunes beyond Benteke, and have that Derby-style stink off them where you can see them getting the odd, sporadic win throughout the season, but never being good enough to put a run together. How can they do so? Who have they got? I've also got a sinking feeling that this will be the year we learn that simply having a good manager can't keep you in the Premier League: Harry Redknapp and Paul Lambert could both realistically be managing Championship clubs this time next year. Even Martin O'Neill isn't having everything his own way: in other years, Sunderland would be leading the league at Christmas. The relegation battle could be effectively over by March, when you consider that Reading are stuck in a similar scenario to Villa. Swansea, on the other hand, are a well-organised side that showed against Fulham that they can cope without Michu. They'll see this as a dream fixture while they wait for him to return.
SPURS (4/11) vs. Reading
I know we've long since desisted in considering AVB 'The New Special One', but could Spurs' season actually be going any better right now?!
- 4th in the Premier League (two points behind Chelsea, who have a game in hand).
- Hugo Lloris settled as their new No 1 (with even Brad Friedel cheering him on on Twitter.)
- Gareth Bale is coming into his 'form period' just in time to do damage (he'll be suspended for this match, though).
- 19 points out of a possible 24 (dropping two at home to Stoke and losing away to Everton - not a disaster).
- A young squad, but one who also has experience and grit at the top level now (two top 4 finishes in 3 years).
- No injury concerns, despite the congested fixture list.
As for today's game? They're at home to Reading. Sure thing, lock it up.
Side note: how apeshit would Spurs fans go if they were to finish 4th and be denied a Champions League spot AGAIN, this time by Arsenal winning the tournament? It seems devilish enough to be a possibility, doesn't it?
Southampton vs. ARSENAL (8/11)
This 'sure thing' makes me feel slightly uneasy. If ever there was an upset waiting to shit on the entire accumulator, this was it. Southampton have only lost one at home since November. If it wasn't for Stoke's ruthless comeback and their defence coming apart at the seams, they'd have been the only side to have beaten Stoke in the Britannia all season. Their spot in the relegation is a tenuous one, too: you sense they're keeping 18th warm for Villa when they finally get the grit to start putting games like the Stoke one away. Nervous? When I put it like that, yeah.
On the other hand...their defence leaks key goals at the worst times. Arsenal won the reverse game 6-1 and are coming off that 7-3 win against Newcastle with Theo Walcott, Oliver Giroud and Santi Cazorla all on fire. It could be another high-scoring game, but Arsenal seem more likely to get the majority of them. I feel better now.
World Darts Championship Final
PHIL TAYLOR (5/4 @ -1.5) vs. Michael Van Gerwen
And now it gets interesting. It'd be such a ME thing to do to get the 5-way on the football then fall at the final hurdle. But I couldn't resist adding a bit more spice to a match that really, truly doesn't need it.
This was the dream final at the start of the tournament, with the greatest ever to pick up a dart, 'The Power', peaking as always for the World Championship. He faces the wonderkid, Michael Van Gerwen, finally living up to the potential that the world has been waiting for since he almost hit a televised 9-darter against Martin 'Wolfie' Adams at just 17 years of age (he's 23 now). This year alone, he's won his first televised major in the World Grand Prix (held in in Dublin), reached the final of the Grand Slam of Darts and defeated Taylor in an incredible Player's Championship final recently
Add to that their performances to get here since the Christmas break: MVG took out Adrian Lewis, who has won the last two World Titles, in a sensational 5-4 Quarter-Final, showing composure beyond his years despite Lewis often reaching the peaks of his wondrous abilities during the battle. He went from that to Sunday's semi-final, where he took out an incredible 9-dart finish en route to beating James Wade. Not content with one, though, after a brief celebration, Van Gerwen went back to work and hit ANOTHER eight perfect darts before falling JUST short on a double 12 that would have made them the first back-to-back, televised 9-darters in history! (Why I love darts? MVG still lost the set despite those two majestic legs. He eventually won 6-4)
Then you've got Taylor, who dropped just one set en route to Sunday's semi-final with old nemesis Raymond Van Barneveld (whitewashing last year's World Finallist, Andy Hamilton, and UK Open Champion, Robert Thornton, on the way).
It was during the post-match interview following Friday's quarter-final win over Hamilton, though, that we saw a glimpse of Taylor's dark side. In his typical routine of feigning respect for his upcoming opponent - who had earlier said that he didn't fear Taylor - 'The Power' revealed details of Barney's private life (referring to him feeling suicidal and getting back together with his wife) seemingly as a tactical ploy to get in his rival's head.
It appeared to work, too, as Barney looked a shell of the confident, composed, former 5x World Champion he had been all week in the early stages of the match. Taylor rushed to a 5-1 lead and was coasting.
Then it happened. Taylor started missing darts. Barney started hitting them. Barney hit a 12-dart leg to get the momentum going, then later punished a missed opportunity from the 13x World Champion with a spectacular Bull, 25, Bull checkout. In the blink of an eye, it was 5-4. As Wayne Mardle pointed out on commentary, Taylor had to speed up his throw because his hand was shaking due to the tension.
But this is Phil Taylor we're talking about. He lives to crush the dreams of others, often in cruel and unusual fashion. He rushed into a lead in the 10th set, hit crucial 180s, an exhibition-style 80 checkout with two double tops, and punished Barney's missed doubles to close out the game with 68. Just like that, it was over. Except it wasn't.
Taylor jumped around the stage as if he'd won the World Championship, only pausing to scream "YES!" at Barney, who was facing the other way. He bumped fists with the officials but, as Barney went to congratulate him with a handshake, Taylor had words for him. Confused, Barney attempted to pull him back for a hug to ease tensions. Even the most basic lip-reading ability will tell you that he was met with profanities, and he lightly pushed Taylor in the back as the latter stormed away, only to be met with a further abuse for doing so. Security was forced to intervene during the fracas and escort both men off-stage. It was a disgraceful lack of sportsmanship from Taylor and one which he has since apologised for (albeit by text).
Due to this, MVG has suddenly become a firm fan favourite with those who wish to see him avenge his fellow countryman's loss. It certainly has all the makings of a 'passing of the torch'-style final, doesn't it? (Especially when you consider that such a final has never happened; Taylor's former protege Lewis has won his two previous finals against Hamilton and Gary Anderson)
But let's hang on a second: this is Phil Taylor. In a WORLD Final. Having lost only one set en route to the final before Sunday's clash with Barney. I, and any self-respecting darts gambler, learned a long time ago: NEVER back against 'The Power'.
He thrives on building our hopes of an upset up...only to crush them. That's what he does. It's what he did in his most recent game. He thrives on seeing an opponent do well, only to crush their confidence with a well-timed 180, 9-darter, whatever it takes. And he's near unbeatable over a long format when he's on his A-game. He also tends to pull away from opponent as the game goes on - making the -1.5 handicap too tempting to pass up.
If you fancy an additional side bet, it'd also be a very Phil Taylor thing to do for HIM to hit back-to-back 9-dart finishes tomorrow AGAINST Van Gerwen. Just to show he can. Paddy Power aren't showing odds for that bet, but hunt around. I read last night that you'd have gotten 50,000/1 on it happening before last night, though bookies will obviously be more cautious after that scare.
My heart says MVG will win and take the torch off a kicking-and-screaming 'Power', but I've had similar dreams end in disappointment way too many times already. Taylor 7-4.
Follow Rick on Twitter to see his live reactions as everything he's said in this column turns to shit.
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