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| NEVER ask Balotelli to do burpees... |
Contrary to popular belief...I don't enjoy losing money.
So for me to sit here and even attempt an accumulator on FA Cup 3rd Round day would only serve to waste your time. I quit. I've tried it the past few years and found that trying to bet on a selection of games together, on the very DAY were upset results thrive, is like trying to order pizza on Christmas Day. You're there to eat Turkey, the day is pretty much designed for you to eat Turkey, so don't fight a losing battle and eat your Domino's some other time.
That doesn't mean you can't enjoy the Turkey, though.
See how do you turn the one day of the year when rules go out the window and anything can and will happen into a money-making opportunity? Simple: you spread your bets.
What we're gonna do today is pick 5 upset specials. Keep your bets low depending on your budget and confidence in each one (I'll be splitting €10, 5-ways evenly; so €2 a pick. Hey it's just after Christmas...times are tough...). The first objective is to win your money back. Then anything else is a bonus. I've two picks here at 4/1, so worst case scenario, if only one upset comes through I've only lost €2. Before you pipe up, I realise that there is a much more realistic worst case scenario that involves you just throwing €10 down the drain...but think positively here.
Let's get into it.
5 single bets @ €2 each; All odds via Paddy Power.
Man City vs.WATFORD (16/1)
City are coming apart at the seams. Mario Balotelli and Roberto Mancini's training ground bust-up is one that'll likely see Balotelli lose his last supporter behind the scenes at the Etihad, just as the January transfer window opens. It's quite possible that neither will be there come next August (in fact, I wonder what odds you'd get on neither being there by the FA Cup 5th Round...). With City now out of the Champions' League and 7 points behind United in the Premier League, they're into damage control mode, so Mancini will be fully focused on trying to catch Fergie and save his job in the process. I had this pencilled in for an upset special before this bust-up even happened, now City's eyes will be even further off the ball. The entire world will be monitoring every movement Balotelli and Mancini make on Saturday (if Balotelli even makes the squad), and both know it.
On the other hand, Gianfranco Zola's Watford are sneakily drifting up the table in the Championship and currently lie in the bottom play-off slot (despite losing a 4-3 thriller to Charlton on New Year's Day). Who knows? Next season they could be living the dream and do a Reading: headed for a rock bottom finish in the Premier League with no prospects of further advancement. Bad enough that they won't have to sell-off most of their squad once they get relegated (because nobody will want them), making them good enough in 2014/15 that they'll probably jump straight back up again. While I'm here, I may as well go on a tangent.
Does anyone else think it's getting a bit ridiculous that teams can yo-yo up and down as they see fit? Why not spice it up and, yeah, still send 3 Premier League sides down (because nobody wants to see more Villa, QPR and Reading on MOTD next season), replace them with the Championship's Top 3, then keep the play-offs for a one-off, all-or-nothing match with 16th place in the Premiership? It'd increase the excitement of the play-offs (which are fun enough to justify keeping) and also test whether the team that finished 6th in the Championship are really good enough to compete, to lessen the risk of them becoming another, dead weight, yo-yo side.
Anyway, there's enough going for Watford and against City to make the 16/1 odds a steal. Grab them before the bookies notice all of this.
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| David McGoldrick: He scores goals, he scores goals...just not for Coventry anymore... |
Spurs vs. COVENTRY (16/1)
If you'll kindly ignore Coventry's 1-0 loss to Shrewsbury on New Year's...COVENTRY ARE (were) ONE OF THE MOST IN-FORM TEAMS IN ENGLAND!
Seriously. After a miserable start to the season that saw their old manager, Andy Thorn, sacked just 8 days after the league began, they lost 5 on the trot and seemed happless. Fortunately, new manager Mark Robbins managed to steady the ship and lost just one match from 27th October until Tuesday. He also established them as a scoring force with on-loan striker, David McGoldrick, bagging 17 as they rocketed up the League One Table (they're currently 11th but still in the play-off hunt; not bad considering their start). They've averaged over 3 goals per game over the last 8 games and, though McGoldrick has since been recalled to Nottingham Forest, will go into this game certainly capable of causing an upset.
I sung Spurs' praises in the last column, and still stand by that argument. But, at 16/1, Coventry could catch AVB off-guard and win you some money.
Wigan vs. BOURNEMOUTH (10/3)
Think of Bournemouth as...like Coventry, without the asterisks. Like Coventry, they had a managerial switch early in the season (Eddie Howe replacing Paul Groves), but their problem was that they drew more than they lost. And their run hasn't just ended: Bournemouth haven't lost since 6th October (Groves' last match, against Coventry oddly). They lie out of the League One play-off spots only on goal difference and haven't just had to give back their star player.
Yes, I know that "NEVER BET ON WIGAN!" is a golden gambling rule of mine. But that's the Premier League and in an accumulator situation. This is a single bet and they're coming off a 4-0 drubbing against United. So while they might look at this tie as the ideal time to regain some confidence, Bournemouth will walk in looking to ruffle some feathers. 'Tis the season and all that.
Unfortunately, the bookies have clocked onto all of this and the odds aren't as attractive as they are for Coventry or Watford. But between the three, there's profit to be had...
SOUTHAMPTON (4/1) vs. Chelsea
It's a very Rafa Benitez thing to do to distract from a lagging league campaign by picking up a trophy elsewhere. The FA Cup might be the trophy he has in mind (since the Champions League is now off the table). He still has the Europa League and League Cup to play for too, though, and Chelsea are in the semi-finals of the latter. Or maybe Roman Abramovich has told him he'll get offered the job full-time if he wins the league. We just don't know. What we do know is that on Wednesday they lost 1-0 to a QPR side who, before that game, had yet to exactly rise from the ashes as some had thought they would under Harry Redknapp.
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| I'm onto you Rafa... |
WEST HAM (4/1) vs. Man Utd
Unlike Rafa, we know exactly what Alex Ferguson's motives for the season are: re-capture his Premier League trophy from the noisy neighbours and, if possible, go on a Champions League run. While this season, for me, feels very like 1998/99 again (setting up to win one game at a time, dramatic comebacks galore and possessing one of Europe's elite strike forces again), I think hoping for another treble is ridiculously optimistic at this stage. The FA Cup can only serve as a distraction for United and I can definitely see Fergie fielding a younger line-up with one eye on next Sunday's clash with Liverpool. Big Sam used to have a reputation for rolling over for Sir Alex's sides when he was Bolton manager...maybe it's time for the favour to be returned this Saturday.
Follow Rick on Twitter to see all of these predictions go to shit, as it happens.
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