Sunday, October 21, 2012

NFL: Angry Andy's 5 Picks

by Angry Andy

Last week was like staring patiently at an egg timer, waiting for the last few grains of sand to drop. The NFL was taking shape after the turmoil of the replacement refs at the start of the season. The cream was slowly rising to the top. Sanchez was one more poor performance from being dropped and replaced by Tebow. The dominant teams were to rise, crushing the opposition and establish themselves firmly as contenders.

And then the footballing Gods decided to turn that egg timer, and the league, on its head.


Sanchez and the Jets strived over the Colts. The Patriots were beaten by the Seahawks. The Niners were dominated by a Giants team who have already lost to two teams below .500. Four out of five rookie quarterbacks won their games, the only lost being the overall number 1 pick, Andrew Luck, and his Indianapolis Colts going down to Tebow  Sanchez and the Jets. The Texans went down to a seemingly rejuvenated Packers. Even the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons needed another bonehead decision by a coach to “ice the kicker” to beat a poor Raiders team (the word poor was probably not needed there!)

Week 6 was so unpredictable that ESPN’s experts, except two, were all below .500 in pick em

What if that egg timer was not just for Tebow Time or how long Michael Vick/Andy Reid has?

With all the uncertainity and unpredictability in the league, people are grasping for answers. And the most scrutinized position is at quarterback. We’ve seen trends of it over the years, but what if coaches fully embraced the idea of two starting quarterbacks?

With 23 out of 32 teams being .500 or lower, teams are desperate to turn their season around. Most of the 32 teams see themselves as playoff contenders as so few are pulling away from the pack (Sorry, Cleveland not you). Growing talk (and reports this week through ESPN) is that more and more coaches are open to the idea of a team being lead by two quarterbacks.

Think about it, why does it have two be one quarterback that has to be under centre in every single snap? Most teams have adopted two running backs to share the load. It is not uncommon to have two tight ends. And even the Arizona Cardinals have found another wide receiver to compliment Larry Fitzgerald (took them awhile to get that memo). So why not two quarterbacks?

Why doesn’t Tebow get more snaps under centre and be given the opportunity to throw the ball. The different styles between a Tim Tebow and a Mark Sanchez would mean opposing defenses would be forced in to studying two quarterbacks with two different styles. Two different game plans to prepare for.

The status of elite quarterbacks is diminishing by the year. Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers are corner stones of their organizations for a number of years to come. Peyton Manning (despite his phenomenal comeback Monday) and Tom Brady (who hasn’t won the big one since 2004 and questions are being asked of him) are hitting the twilight if their career. With the exceptions of Big Ben and Drew Brees, is there another quarterback in the league that you would have full faith in leading your team to the Superbowl right now?

But what if a game manager quarterback was assisted by another quarterback that offered something completely different on offense?

Take Alex Smith. Effective in the pocket, accurate, and, with the exception of his last two games, protective of the football. Now with Jim Harbaugh bringing in back up QB Colin Kaepernick into the offense in Wildcat formations, defenses are confused.

The number one argument in the case for this, that I have read, is that why are coaches not trying this more like legendary Bill Walsh did in the 80s?

Only then did I take this argument seriously and opened my mind to the possibilities. This could work. The game is always evolving. Is it caveman thinking to be stuck in the old ways of thinking and be out smarted by newer methods?

Bill Walsh coached the San Francisco 49ers to 3 Championships in the 80s. The year after he retired, George Seifeirt took his team to a fourth Superbowl. The 49ers were declared the team of 80s. Bill Walsh didn’t just coach a championship team, he coached a dynasty. He made the West Coast Offense what it is today. Needless to say his opinion matters. And he coached two of the top five greatest quarterbacks of all time in Joe Montana and Steve Young.

The way he orchestrated “The Drive” in 1988 Superbowl between Montana and Young when the 49ers were losing in the last 3 minutes and needed a touchdown was genius.

Oh wait, what’s that? That didn’t happen? Young stayed on the sidelines for every snap? Huh?

Even though Young won a few games for the Niners that year that lead them to the playoffs when Montana was injured, ‘The Drive’ is known for how Joe Cool marched his team down the field from his own 8. The team was tense and nervous in the huddle with season on the line, the biggest ask of their professional careers. Montana calmly points out John Candy in the stands before marching HIS team down the field for the game winning drive.

Then what are the people talking about when they use Bill Walsh as the example for a two team quarterback?
 


In 1980 Bill Walsh adopted this system with Joe Montana and Steve DeBerg. Yes it was successive. The 49ers won the Superbowl the following season. But the system was not successful because two quarterbacks lead the 49ers to their first  Superbowl in franchise history. The system helped groom Joe Montana into an elite quarterback.

Montana led the Niners on the field to the Lombardi trophy.

Fast forward to this year's San Francisco 49ers. The combination of Smith with a dose of Kaepernick was very effective against the Jets and Bills. However, the Giants were a different story. The Niners dominated the first quarter but seemed to abandon the game plan early after going down a touchdown. Harbaugh didn’t want to just beat the Giants, he wanted to make an example out of them!

Alex Smith got more reckless with the downfield passes. The run game was almost non existent. The switches between quarterbacks was more frequent. Even in the second quarter when Smith was able to connect on a down field pass to Vernon Davis, he was immediately replaced by Kapernick. Was the Giants defense confused? They sacked him for a loss of 11 yards. And we know how that game finished so let’s not dwell on that.

The Niners went back to basics on Thursday night against a tough Seahawks team. The Niners utilized a ground and pound attack with Kaepernick used sparingly. Alex Smith had a good, effective game, despite the reckless interception.

He did lead his team to two long drives in the second half that helped seal the win.
San Francisco 49ers  were two different teams from Sunday and Thursday. The basics worked. 49ers have a perfect record when Frank Gore gets more than 20 touches of the ball under Harbaugh. The odd bit of smoke and mirrors on who is quarterback in certain plays is nice and may even win games, but not championships. One team. One leader at quarterback.

Sports have different rules but the same principles. There always needs to be a leader, that alpha male who takes charge when his team needs him most (Editor's Note: I may have to argue with you about this point at a later date, Andy). You only need to look at the difference between Dwyane Wade/LeBron James 2011 Miami Heat and LeBron James’ 2012 Championship winning Miami Heat to see this. There is no room for co-captains in sports. When the game is on the line, no matter the sport, you rely on your best player to step up.

All the great teams have one whether it’s Brady, Rodgers, Manning (both!), Big Ben, Drew Brees. Is it a coincidence that I just named the starting quarterback of the last nine Superbowl winning teams?

Every team has slumps on their way to the top, drastic changes will not work. Persistence will.

Two starting quarterbacks is not the answer.

The league is tighter than it has ever been at this stage of the season. It won’t be this tight for long though. The Niners responded on Thursday night. Atlanta has yet to be challenged by a team over .500. Patriots-Jets battle for AFC East control will go a long way in determining how good Brady still is, if his secondary can hold off another 4th quarter slump. Andy Reid continues to put his faith and career in the hands of Michael Vick (And doesn’t Vick have safe hands!). Texans need to bounce back against an injured Baltimore and Rodgers needs to show the fight back is still on and last week was not just a flashback.

The grains of sand continue to drop. . . And this season is only warming up!

Wish the grains of sand dropped into my eyes so I wouldn’t have to see last week's picks. With a comeback greater than Tebow himself, let's get to this week's picks:

(Home teams in CAPS)
GIANTS  (-6.0) over RedskinsI know, I know, New York are never favoured at home and are 0-2 in division games. But one look at last week and combined with the face that Washington can not protect against the pass, Eli Manning is going to rack up some serious numbers today! Giants will not want to be 0-3 in their division. RG3 is looking great, but that Giants defense is going to be tough all night for the rookie

Ravens (+7.0) over TEXANSTexans will be looking to bounce back after getting hammered by the Packers last week while the Ravens got a lucky escape against the Cowboys thanks to some more bad coaching decisions. While everyone is talking about the Ravens' defensive injuries, especially Ray lewis going down for the season, I’m taking the points because a) The Texans have injuries on the defense side too including cornerback Johnathan Joseph, which limits their coverage for Torrey Smith and b) The Ravens have been winning ball games on offense this year. Yep, you read that right, Flacco has been winning games for a team notorious for their defense. Ravens might even sneak another win in this battle between the only two teams in the AFC with a record over .500

Cowboys (-2.0) over PANTHERSThe Dallas Cowboys are long over due a win and should have got it over the 5-1 Ravens last week. Cam Newton and co have a unique talent of finding ways to lose a game. Expect the Cowboys to use Felix Jones and the running game to win this one

Bears (-6.5) over LIONSThe Chicago Bears are quietly making a case for the best team in the league and coming off a bye week they should be well rested to take down the Detroit Lions. I don’t like Stafford’s chances against this D and if the Lions go down by a big number again in the 4th like last week against Philadelphia, they will not be able to battle back from this one. Bears to dominate and establish themselves as a contender this week.

Jets (+10.5) over PatriotsFirst of all, I hate this pick! I hate backing Sanchez, I hate backing the Jets and I hate John Cena for captaining this team in their turnaround last week against the Colts which started my landslide in the accumulator. Damn you Cena! Although I don’t see karma affecting John Cena with his Patriots going down tonight, I do see that New England secondary giving up a lot of points. Sanchez was not great, or even good, last week. He was effective but only because the running game took off. I expect the poor New England defense to allow the Jets to stay in the game and it will rest on Sanchez’ shoulders in the last few minutes. And then the Patriots prevail by less than a touchdown.

Last Week: 1-5
Season: 16- 19
Accumulator: 0-6

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