As Andrew Luck lead an astonishing comeback last week, the conversation between my mates and myself turned, once again, to who is better between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. I argued for Luck with one of my points being how he has taken the worst team in the league last season which now looks playoff bound (this was before Monday night’s Redskins game when RG3 and co beat the Giants.) The counter point that was thrown right back at me? RG3 leads the league in fantasy points!
HUH?!
I was genuinely taken back as to how in the hell do I respond to that. My mind set on fantasy football has always been that players have break out games each week that changes results (e.g. Doug Martin) but that there are players who may not have the best fantasy points every week that just do what is required of them by their team to win (Alex Smith ranked no 24 overall last year yet got to the NFC Championship game, something I don’t see the Redskins doing . . . this year at least). And also, fantasy points can easily be racked up in garbage time of games and don’t show how player A performed when it counted or when their team still had a chance of winning the game.
There is only one way of settling this in my mind. And that’s by taking a look back at the fantasy leaders over the past five years and comparing them with that year’s MVP and Superbowl MVP.
Note: As of typing, I actually have no idea what results I’m about to find but still assume that I am right in assuming that arguing for leading the league in fantasy points can not be considered a great argument for who is a better player. I could be wrong, often am.
2011 Season
Top 5 Fantasy Players:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Cam Newton
4. Tom Brady
5. Matthew Stafford
MVP: Aaron Rodgers (1st)
Superbowl MVP: Eli Manning (7th)
2010 Season
Top 5 Fantasy Players:
1. Arian Foster
2. Michael Vick
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Tom Brady
5. Peyton Manning
MVP: Tom Brady (4th)
Superbowl MVP: Aaron Rodgers (3rd)
2009 Season
Top 5 Fantasy Players:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Chris Johnson
3. Drew Brees
4. Brett Favre (how the hell have I wrote this many blogs without dedicating one to his improbable comeback!)
5. Matt Schaub
MVP: Peyton Manning (6th)
Superbowl MVP: Drew Brees (3rd)
2008 Season:
Top 5 Fantasy Players:
1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. DeAngelo Williams
4. Philip Rivers
5. Jay Cutler
MVP: Peyton Manning (8th)
Superbowl MVP: Santonio Holmes (Outside top 50)
2007 Season:
Top 5 Fantasy Players:
1. Tom Brady
2. LaDainian Tomlinson
3. Tony Romo (Checked 3 different websites, this somehow seemingly happened!)
4. Randy Moss
5. Brain Westbrook
MVP: Tom Brady (1st)
Superbowl MVP: Eli Manning (32nd)
A number of conclusions can be drawn from the last five years. Notably that my own personal fantasy teams suck because there is not one single 49ers player in the rankings! Also that fantasy football is quarterback driven and that you’ll have a hard time winning games without a top trigger man. But that’s not the reason for outlining these stats.
Only twice has the fantasy leader won the MVP, with neither winning the Superbowl (Rodgers’ 15-1 Packers lost to the Giants in the divisional playoffs while the Patriots went 18-1). While the rankings do show some reflection on how good a player is, they don’t always show the impact the player has on a season. In his last four seasons Peyton Manning (injured in 2011 season) only made the top 5 once. And that was one of the two years that he did not win the MVP award.
A lot of great, Hall Of Fame potential, players have not made the top 5 over the last five years. Most notably is Adrian Peterson.
While RG3 has had a tremendous season, it remains to be seen if he can beat Andrew Luck (ranked 7th) to rookie player of the season. I still don’t believe fantasy points are a strong argument as RG3 will most likely not be MVP and my final concluding point . . .
Tony frickin’ Romo got in the top 5 one year? Really?
@AMTRick Note:
This was my argument that Andy is rebutting here so, while I won't offer a long counterpoint since it's Andy's column, I will say that he's taken it slightly out of context. The Fantasy argument was only a part of my overall point, that RGIII has been more of a difference maker and shined more as an individual than Andrew Luck, and is therefore more MVP-worthy. The Colts' season has been punctuated by the tragic story of Chuck Lagano being diagnosed with leukemia and the inspirational effect it's had on the side. That's been the difference maker for them, more than Luck who's been solid at times, never really spectacular, and prone to the odd rookie error. Meanwhile, the Redskins' have been similarly thrust into playoff contention and what is the one, major explanatory factor for that: yep, (wrestling fans, point your thumbs at your head while saying this) R-G-III. The fact that he leads the ENTIRE LEAGUE in Fantasy points in his ROOKIE YEAR is just another indication that he's more of an individual difference maker than Luck. But I do accept Andy's point that if the Colts make the playoffs and the Redskins don't, Luck could have a stronger case. Either way, Peyton Manning is going to get it so this argument is more interesting watercooler discussion than anything else. Anyway, that's enough hijacking from me, back to Andy...
Onto this weeks picks:
(HOME TEAM in Caps):
BENGALS (-3.5) over Cowboys
Well after ragging on Tony Romo, I could not pass up on this bet! Bengals running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the first running back for the Bengals to have 3 consecutive 100 yard games for the Bengals in over 10 years. The 7-5 Bengals have also won 4 in a row and are creeping their way back into the playoff hunt with not much attention on them right now. I don’t see the Cowboys stopping the momentum tonight in Cincinnati.
Colts (-5.0) over TITANS
The Titans suffered two season ending injury blows on defense last week. The team already ranked 31st in scoring defense, averaging 29.9 points a game. With the Colts on a roll at 8-4 and so close to a playoff spot, they will feel like this is a must win game over division rivals. Colts won by 6 last time, albeit in overtime but they shouldn’t need the extra quarter to cover this time
Falcons (-3.0) over PANTHERS
The Falcons defense found their rhythm last week when they intercepted Dree Brees five times which should make Cam Newton extremely cautious this week. Falcons have also scored at least 30 points in each of their last 5 meetings against Carolina. They are 2 and a half games ahead of San Francisco for the top spot in the NFC and a win today will almost guarantee home filed advantage in the divisional playoffs after already being crowned NFC South Champions
BUCCANEERS (-7.5) over Eagles
Eagles suck. Eagles going up against a playoff contender that desperately needs a W means a long day at the office for Andy Reid. For all he has done for the franchise, it is sad to see Andy Reid go out this way. Nick Foles will remain starter for the rest of the season and does look like a quarterback with potential after a few decent outings. However, Tampa Bay have lost two straight and it’s now or never to get their playoff hopes back on track. They are only one game behind Seattle for the final spot but the Seahawks should win their game over the Cardinals tonight. The Eagles defense is a Quarterback’s dream, as they only have 20 sacks all season. To put that into perspective, 49ers’ Aldon Smith has 17.5 sacks and Texans’ JJ Watt has 16.5.
Jets (-3.0) over JAGS
Don’t talk to me about this pick. Backing Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez in any winning situation hurts me, it really does. I hate that Jacksonville are this bad that I can not put this in my top 5. My only hope is that Sanchez gets benched and we finally see #TebowTime just once this season to help cover this bet in the stadium that he may actually be starting Quarterback in next season.
Happy Football People!
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 40-36
Accumulator: 1-13
No comments:
Post a Comment