NFL: Angry Andy's 5 Picks

The following blog was written before the tragedy in Kansas City took place.

The most interesting story in the NFL right now is the quarterback controversy in San Francisco. It’s a defining battle of experience versus potential. Alex Smith has been phenomenal statistically over the past two years, ranked number 3 statistically this year before going down with a concussion against the Rams. In stepped back-up QB Colin Kaepernick, who was already starting to make headlines with Niners fans as Harbaugh was fearless in introducing him for snaps at almost any period of the game. With Kaepernick undefeated after two starts and looking to offer a different dimension to the 49ers, is this the right option for the coach to go with?

The example that a lot of people will go with is the New England Patriots over ten years ago. Then quarterback Drew Bledsoe went down in the fourth quarter of the second game of a 2001 season after shredding a blood vessel in his chest after been taken a hard tackle. Then back up Tom Brady stepped in for the final series of the game. They would end up losing 10-3 to the Jets.

Brady would find his stride as the season progressed (winning 11 of 14 games) and Bledsoe never found his way back in to the team as the Patriots won the Superbowl that year. Drew Bledsoe had started the season as the (then-record) 10-year $103million contract. He would be the starter for the Buffalo Bills the following season.

However this could swing another way when Philip Rivers was traded to San Diego. New time followers of the league will be shocked to learn about the man he replaced. Take a guess. A clue you ask? Well the replaced Quarterback has won a Superbowl since and his name belongs in Canton, Ohio . . . . While Rivers should be associated with Cleveland at the rate he is going lately.

The answer is, of course, Drew Brees. Okay, take away Thursday night’s 5 interceptions and the end of his 54 game touchdown pass streak and on paper this looks like one the dumbest ideas ever! On paper? On anything, what the hell were the Chargers thinking?

The biggest Quarterback controversy of all time was when there were not one but two hall of fame Quarterbacks on San Francisco. Joe Montana had already won two Superbowls heading into the 1988 season but had taken a beating in the playoffs in the previous two years. He was literally knocked out in the 86 playoff loss to the Giants and 49ers head coach Bill Walsh had pulled him from the 87 playoff game with the Vikings. The Niners would still lose that game.

Montana edged Young at the start of the 88 season, remaining as starter. But Young started a few games in the 88 season after Montana got injured again and even won a few games including one of the greatest touchdown runs ever against Minnesota.  Montana would be the one that would lead the 49ers to a Superbowl that year against the Cincinnati Bengals with his team down 16-13 inside the final few minutes. Steve Young would eventually take over the team after Montana was injured in the 1990 Championship game at the hands of the New York Giants. It wouldn’t be until the 1994 season that the Niners would win the big one again under Steve Young.

So reflecting back on history, what is Harbaugh to do? Considering the Patriots went 5-11 under Bledsoe the year before he was replaced changes the retrospective look at the controversy - even if Drew Bledsoe is in the Patriots Hall of Fame. Despite the growing amount of people who claim that this is eerily similar to what is going on in San Francisco, is a 5-11 season comparable to a 13-3 NFC Championship run season?

Alex Smith has been replaced by a number of quarterbacks over his career including Shaun Hill and Troy Smith (miracle pass in Wembley against the Broncos, I’m pretty sure he made a plaque for himself for that, because he’ll never win anything else in the NFL). So surely questions should not be raised if he is being replaced by a quarterback with the potential of Colin Kaepernick who has backed it up on the field already? Well, Drew Brees narrowly missed out on the playoffs for the Chargers in 2005 but his throwing arm was injured in the final game of the season, raising doubts over his future. The same Drew Brees who had already been replaced by the man he replaced in Doug Flutie (Chargers fans, give me something here?) and was given a very poor deal that basically forced him out of San Diego. This was a year after a 12-4 season from Brees.

Back in 1988, the common belief is that the competition between Steve Young and Joe Montana made both players great (It is also rumoured that they despised each other). Competition is good, it never allows for complacency. Regardless of Jim Harbaugh’s short term decision on a Quarterback starter, I believe we have not seen the end of Alex Smith, even in a 49ers jersey.

This season is long from being over and both Quarterbacks will continue to fight for that leadership spot. This Quarterback controversy is unlike any other, Alex Smith was in the middle of his best period in his career. The only thing letting him down last year, especially in the NFC Championship game, was his third down efficiency which he had improved on. He could have, and could still be, the guy to lead the 49ers to their sixth championship. As a 49ers fan, I hope Harbaugh took notes from how Bill Walsh managed the greatest Quarterback controversy ever. Either way, it’s a decision that will effect how he will be perceived between good and great as the story develops and a decision that I would not want to make . . . . Or allow another coach in the NFL today for my team to make.

On to this weeks picks:

(HOME Team in Caps)

Vikings (+9.5) over PACKERS

I think the Packers will bounce back from their defeat at the hands of the New York Giants last week but the Vikings will feel that they are still have a chance in clinching that final spot in the NFC playoffs with Seattle and New Orleans struggling. They’ll have to hope for results to go their way to have a chance, but defeating the Packers will give them a great chance. I think the Packers win this one but with it being a division game, and Minnesota needing to bounce back from their own heavy defeat to the Bears last week, I think Adrian Peterson and co will do enough to keep this one close.

Browns (-2.5) over RAIDERS

I never thought I’d do a bet like this. The Browns?  Quarterback Brandon Weedon has actually done a good job on the road with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions thus far this season. And the Raiders seem to have gotten in to the Christmas spirit early, allowing teams to get 34 points or more in their last 4 games. This Raiders team is a bad Raiders team by Raiders standards! And there is no other way to solidify that than taken a Cleveland team on the road against them and feel confident about it!

Buccaneers (+7.0) over BRONCOS

A contender for that final playoff spot, Tampa Bay will feel like this is a must win game for them. They lost to Atlanta last week in the narrowest of margins so they will feel confident that they can beat Denver especially since they had won their previous 4 games. Meanwhile, the Broncos could clinch the AFC West with a win tonight, but it’s a division that they will win regardless of tonight’s result. The Broncos have lost their top running back in Willis McGahee and only beat the Chiefs by 8 last week. If I had an upset special, it’s Denver’s 6 game winning streak coming to an end tonight.

BEARS (-3.5) over Seahawks

I committed the cardinal gambling sin last week in betting the Seahawks on the road; although they lost due to dubious call in the 4th quarter when Ryan Tannenhill was hit mere milliseconds after releasing the ball last week that cost them the game. Jay Cutler showed last week how much he affects that Chicago offense and the defense is still one of the most dangerous in the league that will give Russell Wilson a long day in the office. Bears to dominate this one and cement their playoffs contention.

Giants (-2.5) over REDSKINS

RG3 has been red hot this past few weeks but if there is one guarantee for something going red hot in December, it’s New York Giants football. Like their previous encounter, I can see this game being close but New York will take over in the fourth quarter and should dispatch of their division rivals.

Plus:

Niners (-7.0) over RAMS

The last game produced the first tie in over 4 years but Harbaugh will have studied the tapes and San Francisco will feel like they have something to prove in this one. Rams coach Jeff Fisher may have said during the week that they are preparing for the sixth quarter but this is going to be a totally different battle from a few weeks ago. Since that tie, the Rams have lost heavy to the Jets while the 49ers have disposed of the Bears and Saints under Kaepernick. Kaepernick and a different offense play tonight. The defense is starting to get their groove as far as picks go, expect at least another one tonight.

Last Week: 2-5

Season: 38-33

Accumulator: 1-12