Thursday, February 21, 2013

RBS Six Nations - Weekend 3 Picks



Will Simon Zebo's injury prove destructive to Ireland's Six Nations hopes?

Each weekend, FM104 Sport's Dan 'Pitchside' Pitcher gives his previews and picks ahead of the Six Nations rugby...




Italy vs Wales
Saturday 23rd February; Stadio Olimpico; KO 14:30.

When writing my preview for Italy vs France in the opening round of games, I predicted Italy to win by 3. On the match day, though, I was unsure that it would actually happen. So to win by 4 was sensational.

Two weeks ago however, Scotland avoided a hat-trick of defeats against the Azzuri, demolishing them in all areas of Murrayfield (someone joked to me at full time “Those chipper owners were deffo on the piss after beating France, for the whole week too!”)

Did Italy's victory celebrations over France cost them against Scotland?

Just like they were confident of upsetting French after doing so two years previously in Rome, they will look to draw that same confidence against Wales, who they beat in the 2007 championship.

Jacques Brunel has made four changes from the visit to Edinburgh, Manoa Vosawai coming in at No.8 with Sergio Parisse banned for the remainder of the tournament. An Italian side without captain fantastico will be a weakened side, with Martin Castrogiovanni taking over role as captain.

Speaking of teams who beat France, Wales followed up an opening day loss to Ireland with, what they are calling, a sensational win in Paris. The rest of us, however, were bored out of our minds as it took well over an hour for the games first try to be scored. I give them credit though, for going to Paris and coming away the happy side, that win ending a run of 8 games without victory.

It's surprising that interim Welsh coach, Rob Howley has opted to give Sam Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones bench warming duties. He clearly feels the side who beat France deserves another chance.

This one is certainly a tough game to call, both sides have a defeat each on their cards with Italy’s win over France the more impressive one.

The Italians never got up to the pace of the game last time out, which is something they will need to correct in the early exchanges of the game, the Welsh will be happy by how they defended against France and I doubt will change how they operate in Rome.

I reckon Wales will have their second victory in the RBS Six Nations this weekend.

My Verdict: Wales by 10+


England look to continue their Grand Slam chase at home to France.

England vs France
Saturday 23rd February; Twickenham; KO 17:00

I said it before week 1, England were my pick for the Grand Slam (as much as it pained me to say so). Now they remain, in fact, the only team on course for five victories in a row.

Two weeks ago they beat Ireland in the 6 Nations in Dublin for the first time in 10 years. They were nothing special against a feckless Ireland, but they got the job done!

France will arrive in London hurt and will look to de-rail the chariot after a miserable two weeks. This one (excuse the cliché) can go either way as you don’t know what French team will show up on the day, with coach Philippe Saint-Andre under pressure of facing a French revolution-style guillotine if he doesn't return to Paris with a victory.

He's freshened things up a little: playmaker Vincent Clerc returns from injury and starts, as does Mathieu Bastaraud. Expect them to cause all sorts of problems. It really is a French team we have all come to know over the years with other well known names like Morgan Para, Thierry Dusautoir and Francois Trinh-Duch all starting.

English coach Stuart Lancaster has named Manu Tuilagi in place of Billy Twelvetrees, after recovering from a hamstring injury, Courtney Lawes is also in for the first time as blindside flanker, while Dylan Hartley replaces Tom Youngs.

France, in my living memory, have never lost a hat-trick of games in the 6 Nations, so do I feel England will remain on course for the slam?

NO!

A French victory this weekend would mean that a 6 Nations title would be a possibility for Ireland...if they beat Scotland on Sunday.

My verdict: France by 6.


Scotland vs Ireland
Sunday 24th February; Murrayfield; KO 14:00.

Wellity wellity wellity, its the clash of the Celtic cousins as Ireland travel to Edinburgh.

It's proven to be a very tough ground to play in for Declan Kidney’s men. And after the woeful showing against England two weeks ago, Ireland will be looking to go at this hell for leather.

After the English game in Dublin, We were worried about what type of squad would train and what type of team would travel. Johnny Sexton and Simon Zebo came off injured, numerous players received dead legs and other knocks, while Cian Healy was suspended for stupidity.

The break of the 6 Nations provided guys who hadn’t been selected a huge opportunity to catch the eyes of Declan Kidney in the Pro 12.

Is Paddy the man to rescue Ireland's Six Nations campaign?

That’s what Paddy Jackson and Paul Marshall did and they have wound up in the starting 15. It was a giant decision for Declan Kidney to chose Ulsterman Jackson ahead of vertern Ronan O’Gara at 10, but O’Gara had a 'mare against Scarlets and has paid the price. Considering that Leinster’s Ian Madigan was also called into the squad; O’Gara could well have been in danger of being left out of the matchday squad altogether. Other than those two, Tom Court was the only other change from the losing side against England.

The Scots will target the Irish debutants and will look to put Jackson, in particular, under pressure early in the game. The one major problem with Jackson is goal kicking, which hasn’t been good for Ulster this season, it is usually Ruan Pienaar who fires at the posts for the Pro 12 leaders. If Jackson's kicking isn’t up to scratch on the day, the home side will have a huge chance of victory. 

However there are plenty of good guys in the Irish team who might be able to save Declan Kidney from a P45 for now.

Interim Scotland coach Scott Johnson has made one change from the side that beat Italy, with Geoff Cross replacing Euan Murray (who isn’t available) because of his religious beliefs.

It's a strange feeling when I’m optimistic, but pride will have been hurting after the loss to England in Dublin, and down the years it's the following game that has proven to be a cracker. So, with tradition, I feel Irish eyes may be smiling on Sunday.

My verdict: Ireland by 5+





Dan 'Pitchside' Pitcher is a sports correspondent for FM104 and rugby fantatic. You can read more of his opinions and sports updates by following him on Twitter.




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