So it is written, so it shall be done. This is why we must persist in the face of adversity! This is why I write to you now with little interest left in watching the rest of the night's darts after my Premier League picks, predictably, fell at the first hurdle.
Do I give up? No! Instead of counting my losses, I learn from my mistakes and take the remaining shards of optimism forward onto the weekend for a bigger and better accumulator effort!
I sound stupid, don't I? But then you think back to October 27th, 2012, when one of the most dramatic games of the season saw four goals in the last 15 minutes and ended in a 3-3 draw between Reading and Fulham. This, coupled with Aston Villa being held 1-1 at home against Norwich and a stalemate between Stoke and Sunderland, won me €180. And meant that I was just a mere €10 from breaking even for football bets for 2012-13. Yep, despite loss after loss, if I win over €10 for the rest of this season, I've won the accumulator.
Remember, with the accumulator, you only need to win once.
Or, in this case, twice.
I could be smart and stick the weekly €5 stake on my attractive-looking handicap bet for the QPR/Man Utd bet that I'm including in today's picks, giving me winnings of €12 plus change and a 2012-13 victory. But that'd be no fun.
So let's dare to dream. Not only do I make SIX picks this weekend, I'm doing so over THREE different sports. €5 returns €75 with Paddy Power and, in doing so, would win me my season.
Dare to dream guys. Let's do this:
SIX NATIONS:
ITALY (+14) vs. Wales
In his weekend's RBS Six Nations preview, FM104 Sport correspondent and The Accumulator's own, Dan 'Pitchside' Pitcher has Wales winning this by +10 or over. I like the alternative handicaps for Six Nations matches as they give you a bit of wiggle room to play the odds to your advantage. While I can see Dan's outcome being the same, he paints an intriguing picture of a match-up that seems closer than his pick would have you believe. Fearing that he's going to be proven right anyway, I'm picking Italy to cover an alternate spread of +14 to cover my bases. 2/5 isn't fantastic odds but it's a relatively safe bet to get the accy on the road.
PREMIER LEAGUE:
ARSENAL vs. Aston Villa
Speaking of relatively safe bets, I give you Aston Villa. Yes, they picked up a hard-fought draw at Everton before beating West Ham, but at any stage during those have you really thought to yourself, "Wow, Villa are coming back!" The tools to do so just aren't there. With Arsenal, the opposite seems to be the case. With the likes of Cazorla, Walcott, Giroud, Podolski and co, the tools are very much in place, it seems to be Wenger's trademark mid-season lull that's heralded this loss of form. Wenger knows how to get them into those Champions League places, though, and Villa would likely be top of the list of clubs he'd like to play after such a dip. Anything less than a win sees fourth slip further from reach. Arsenal will know that and are more than capable of getting the job done this Saturday. Whether they'll do it in May, though, is another story.
QPR vs. MAN UTD (-1.0)
Stupid QPR with their fully-capitalised name. They always make my 'winners in caps' formatting look confusing. Either way, I'm picking United to cover the -1.0 handicap. Though a small voice in my head tells me that this is the kind of match that United traditionally lose on: just as they seem to have everything wrapped up and face an easy game we should breeze through, Fergie makes an odd team selection that fails miserably and keeps the league interesting. I almost think he does this on purpose so the team wants to bounce back in a bigger game down the line... And, hey, now that I mention it: welcome to Old Trafford Real Madrid!
Wow, I've just talked myself out of this pick. QPR (ESPECIALLY managed by Harry fucking Redknapp) are going to win. How did I not see this coming?!? Really wish I had written this before putting the fiver down...
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| It's not funny, Fergie... |
WEST BROM vs. Sunderland
Yeah, West Brom to beat Sunderland yada yada yada. Does it even matter anymore? QPR are going to beat United and I've already bet on the opposite happening. Fuck this.
UFC 157:
URIJAH FABER vs. Ivan Menjivar
Enough depressing football chat. Let's move onto Saturday's UFC 157 event. An event that I've just learned I'll be able to watch without any thought of my betting well-being after Man Utd slip up at QPR.
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| Not only does Menjivar fight under different weight classes, he fights as different X-Men too. |
Ivan Menjivar is an interesting fighter with a cool backstory, having fought (and lost to) GSP in the latter's early days at 175lbs and now fighting at 135lbs. The El Salvador native has jumped around weight divisions so much that he was once a sumo wrestler. Instead of entrance music, Menjivar begins each fight by saying, "Tonight, Matthew, I'm going to be...a bantamweight!" That said, he's in the autumn of his career now, and fighting a Urijah Faber who Dana White is determined to bump back up to title contention, having been denied a money rubber match against longtime nemesis Dominic Cruz due to the latter's ACL injury (then losing the Interim Bantamweight Title fight to Renan Barao). Cruz/Faber is always going to be money because of the pair's history and genuine disdain for each other. So, no, there's no trick up anyone's sleeve here: Faber is the vastly superior fighter and will beat Menjivar on Saturday night.
RONDA ROUSEY vs. Liz Carmouche in the 1st Round
I don't know much about women's MMA, but this much I know:
- Dana White is a very shrewd businessman.
- He didn't want a women's division until Ronda Rousey began her reign of terror.
- Rousey has not been taken past the first round and consistently finishes opponents with an armbar.
- Dana has put all of his women's division eggs in a big, Ronda-shaped basket. She's the star. He can't afford to have her lose. After this, she's scheduled to appear on The Ultimate Fighter. Dana knows this and knows that said appearance would be a massive credibility hit to TUF if everyone watched her thinking she was a bum.
- Ronda Rousey loves to have sex the night before a fight. That has nothing to do with my pick, I just figured it was worth adding to the conversation.
- Liz Carmouche got this fight because she was the only one willing to step up at UFC 157 and take Rousey on, i.e. she didn't necessarily get it because she's a serious threat.
- Dana White is a very shrewd businessman.
Rousey wins in the 1st with an armbar. A megastar like her is needed to build legitimate contenders around and, on Saturday, a megastar will be born.
Not that it'll matter once QPR beat United...
Rick Nash is a former pro-wrestler who currently DJs for hire, makes piss-poor sports bets and has a community radio show. Altogether, he's a real bum, and you should be ashamed of yourself if you thought this piece was in any way insightful or entertaining. But still, follow him on Twitter and stuff.
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