Look...I know I've spent an entire season bemoaning the 'gambling gods' and lamenting their hatred for me. I also understand that this is completely and utterly irrational, fixating on mythical figments of my imagination instead of blaming a combination of poor predictions and shitty luck.
But hear me out this one last time.
Desperately needing a win, last weekend I put a '#JustWin' treble on, not to get good value or win any decent amount of money (as is usually the goal), just to win. That would do.
My picks? Man Utd (won), Everton (won) and...Man City.
For fuck sa..
I then switched attention to the NBA Playoffs. My strategy with playoffs in the NBA/NFL has worked quite well for me in the past. It's simple: imagine you were a new fan to the sport, knowing nothing beforehand, what team would you say seems most likely to win? The reason for this logic is because playoffs in US sport are a different beast to anything we experience this side of the water. Teams that have had otherwise-terrible seasons can go on a run and win it all (shout out to the Baltimore Ravens, who beat my colleague Angry Andy's beloved 49ers in the Superbowl) in spite of form, strength of team or any other reasonable statistic.
With that in mind and, following a fantastic run in the Western Conference that turned them from nobodies into a side inspired by an emerging basketball superstar (Steph Curry), I placed the following bet:
Just put €5 on the Golden State Warriors to win the Western Conference @ 9/1. Sorry GSW, you guys were doing so well until now. #NBAPlayoffs
— Rick Nash (@AMTRick) May 13, 2013
Then on Wednesday, I had what I saw as a controversial pick inserted into my online Paddy Power betslip, only to bottle it on account of another gambling rule of mine.
The rule: Never bet against Phil Taylor. (Hey, it worked when I called the World Darts Final to the exact score)
The pick: Michael van Gerwen to win the Premier League Darts playoffs.
Of course, this then ended up happening...
...and Michael van Gerwen is your new Premier League Darts Champion. DO YOU SEE WHAT I MEAN?! WHAT HAVE I EVER DONE TO YOU GAMBLING GODS!
...ahem.
Believe it or not, I still haven't made a loss for the 2012/13. With a total budget of €190 to spend for the season and current winnings of €188 and change, technically unless this week goes down the pan as 36 similar weeks of the past 37 have, I'm in the green. Technically, I could give up now and call this season a winning one thanks to one magical afternoon where my beautiful treble of 3pm kick-off draws came in. But that's no fun.
So I'm going to do what I've done the past two seasons: that is, put €2 on one big, 'all or nothing (read: most likely nothing)', 10-game accumulator for ALL of the Premier League final day outcomes. Then put a sneaky additional €5 on one final, smarter bet that I'll reveal on Twitter after the final results come in (with pictorial evidence to show this is all above board, of course). This worked last season, giving me something to cheer about after the sound of Martin Tyler screaming, "AGUERRRROOOOOOOO!!!!" traumatised me instantly.
I could've cheated and quit a winner. Let the record show that. Instead, I'm putting my winning record on the line for the sake of playing by the rules and winning by the rules.
Let's do this.
CHELSEA vs. EVERTON
Not knowing the answer to ANY of these questions...I'm sitting on the fence.
PICK: Draw
LIVERPOOL vs. QPR
Liverpool have good reason to be optimistic ahead of next season, having clicked just too late to do anything of note. But isn't next year 'their year' every year? Meanwhile, Harry Redknapp's public scathing attacks of his team can't be good for dressing room morale. I think he's already got his mind on the re-building process next summer and is looking forward to gutting a side he appears to hate coaching. So Liverpool should win comfortably.
PICK: Liverpool
MAN CITY vs. NORWICH
Even on a final day with relatively nothing at stake, this fixture stands out as one that begs the question, "What's the point?" Only Brian Kidd remains in an otherwise-gutted City backroom following last Saturday's FA Cup Final loss, whereas Norwich will be thankful to have escaped this season with their Premiership lives. Seriously, has there ever been a worse side that weren't mired in a relegation battle on the final day in the Premier League's history? And yet, there they are, capable of finishing in the Top 10 without one memorable run of form or moment in the entire campaign. I'm taking City here on the sole basis that their squad is better. However we can't discount the possibility that the ref decides to just blow it up early so everyone can get home and start enjoying their summer, given that this match is about as pointless as Brian Kidd going to the Shiekh and discussing the possibility of taking the realms on a permanent basis.
PICK: Man City
NEWCASTLE vs. ARSENAL
I would mock Newcastle for their disastrous run almost immediately after handing Alan Pardew a ridiculously long contract...had my own club not done the same with their new appointment (to be fair, it's massive double standards to call Newcastle 'crazy' for showing long-term faith in Pardew and United 'genius' for doing the same with Moyes). It's been a rough year at Tyneside and they'll still be breathing massive sighs of relief that they aren't facing the prospect of ending it here with copious amounts of egg on their face. Meanwhile, they face a very capable Arsenal side, hungry to seal that 4th spot and fresh off a thumping win at Wigan that could've been an awkward fixture. This fixture doesn't pose even close to the same risk. Your money is safe on this one.
PICK: Arsenal
SOUTHAMPTON vs. STOKE
People have been crediting Stoke for picking their season up, following a disastrous run that saw them go over two months without a win...but why? Sure, they won two straight, but who did they beat? Norwich and QPR? Please. 11th spot flatters this side who have, quite literally, made a pig's head of a season that is now leaning towards farce. Southampton have taken their foot off the gas somewhat since they effectively ensured their Premier League safety, but I can see them sending the crowd home happy with a fitting win to what has been a surprisingly successful season (especially when you consider their eyebrow-raising managerial change).
PICK: Southampton
SWANSEA vs. FULHAM
People are reading too much into Swansea's supposed 'loss of form' since their Capital One Cup win in February. Sure, they've been playing in second gear, but if you've actually been watching them play then you'll have noted that no side has had it easy since then (the fact that United needed a typically late goal to win in Alex Ferguson's send-off - a game many predicted them to win by a landslide - is evidence of this). It's just a case of, as if often the case when teams have nothing left to play for, they've lacked that bit of incentive to go on and win the game when push comes to shove. Laudrup has spoken about this monumental season and the fact that they can top it off by finishing 8th, so I think he'll have them up for one last hurrah here against a Fulham side that are struggling for form, have a poor away record this year and are facing questions over Martin Jol's future.
PICK: Swansea
TOTTENHAM vs. SUNDERLAND
PICK: Tottenham
WEST HAM vs. READING
West Ham are tough to beat at the best of times, never mind if you're an already-relegated Reading. No point wasting your time with an in-depth analysis here.
PICK: West Ham
WIGAN vs. ASTON VILLA
Does anyone else feel horribly denied, now that this fixture has been rendered meaningless after Wigan were destroyed on Tuesday? It's been a thoroughly entertaining relegation run-in: from Southampton's return to form, Newcastle being slowly dragged back into the mire with each passing gameweek and Sunderland either spectacular or spectacularly humbled under Di Canio. When Benteke got sent-off last Saturday and Wigan went on to beat Man City that evening, it felt inevitable that we would be treated to a final-day showdown of a Benteke-less Villa away to a red-hot Wigan. And did I mention that we could've had a 3-WAY MATCH OF THE DAY HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE to summarise it all on top of all of this? But nope, it wasn't to be. So now Villa are safe, Wigan feel like they've both won the lotto and been told they had terminal cancer within a matter of days, and Match of the Day will probably be a bit shit (but we're used to that by now). Prediction-wise: Wigan go out on a high against a relieved Villa side short on firepower.
PICK: Wigan
WEST BROM vs. MAN UTD
And so, it seems fitting that we end this year's accumulator at...the end.
I've been a United fan all of my life. Alex Ferguson has been United boss for longer.
As I said on Twitter when the rumours started, I wasn't surprised when Fergie called it a day. Though I wouldn't admit it to myself, his reaction to the Real Madrid defeat told a story in itself. We'd seen him fume, spit venom and rage, destroy referees with delicious quotes...but we'd never seen him be left completely speechless (that is unless the BBC were trying to interview him). There had to be a reason why.
And now we know. How beautiful would it have been for him to go out, 16 years after his greatest triumph, in Wembley against (we now know) the same opponent that he bested to achieve that magnificent triumph, Bayern Munich? But the numbers don't lie. Instead he leaves us this Sunday after game number 1,500. Since the announcement, everything has been perfect: from the guard of honour (with even the officials lining up to pay respect; I'm sure even Liverpool and City fans could enjoy that aspect), the late winner against Swansea, the speech, Scholes going out on top with him, even weird things: like having one final showdown with a star player by dropping Wayne Rooney, and David Beckham winning his final league medal on the same day as Fergie's goodbye to Old Trafford. You couldn't have scripted it better. It would've been beautiful to end it on 1,501 with a final European triumph against Bayern, but number 1,500 just seems...right.
I wasn't surprised, but it did cause me to question just what being a fan of a team means to me.
It won't happen, but I was still filled with the dreaded hypothetical thought of "What if Ferguson went onto manage another team?" Who would I support then? United or Fergie's new club? They are one in the same to me. I support United because I support Ferguson. He's the constant amid a sea of ever-changing faces and circumstances at a club I've grown to love.
Sure, I follow other teams in other leagues and sports. Just because Ferguson has been at United since I've been alive doesn't mean I've never experienced a changing of the guard before. In the past 12 months, both of my NFL and NBA teams (Philadelphia Eagles and Orlando Magic) have experienced coaching changes. As a Villareal fan, just last year I even had to experience the horror of a newly appointed manager dying just days after his appointment. As an Ireland fan, cries for the sacking of our manager is a regular trending topic on Twitter.
This is different, though. As much as I care about all of the above sides...they're not Man Utd. Even when Andy Reid had an emotional exit from the Philadelphia Eagles last year, having been the only coach in our history to lead us to a Superbowl, I didn't cry or come close to tear. I was sad, sure. But it was his time.
It was Fergie's time, too. Despite that, despite the fact that I'd been subconsciously preparing myself for the news all season and had a previous night of rampant Twitter rumours to prepare myself, I let out an audible sob upon reading the news flash up on my phone as I walked through a large Dublin train station that Wednesday morning.
I'm still a United fan, I'll always be. And, as per the gaffer's request, I'll support the new boss through good times and bad. But I don't think it'll ever be the same for me. The footballing world will move on, eventually. New stars will be born, new stories will come along. I'll enjoy it all as it happens, too. But I can't help but feel that, with Ferguson gone, that my passion for this sport has hit its peak and all that remains is passive enjoyment. Out of habit. Out of duty. The gaffer told me to cheer on United under Moyes, so I will.
Still, if this is it, what a ride it's been. I've had more ups and downs in around 20 years as a football fan than most non-United fans may have in a lifetime. It's not just about the trophies, though. It's about the time we were down against Newcastle, just this year, playing terribly with nothing going our way. And yet, even when the players couldn't hold onto the ball for their lives, they still remembered there was 90 minutes on the clock. Plus Fergie time. Chicharito came off the bench, scored, and we won. The win wasn't what mattered, though, it was the journey. The highs accentuated because, before them, were horrible lows and, in between, unpredictable little bumps in the road, the game ebbing and flowing either way with each passing minute. Only with Ferguson on the sideline could such a fan experience be possible.
It swung against us sometimes, too. Ask Martin Tyler and Sergio Aguero about that one. We remember those moments just as vividly. It brought us together, made us stronger, and made the next high all that bit sweeter.
We'd question his team selection, time-after-time. Sometimes we'd even be right (like when he inexplicably dropped Antonio Valencia ahead of the crucial Man City game last season). Most of the time, though, we were forced to accept that Fergie knew best. He knew how to handle players that we loved and made us feel okay about losing absolute icons of our youth: the Roy Keanes, David Beckhams, Ruud van Nistelrooys, the list goes on. Just having him there gave us hope that we'd be okay.
Now we lose another icon of our youth. The fact that he's telling us it'll be okay, coupled with (I suppose) the fact that he'll still be at United in some capacity, still reassures us, I suppose. But, not to sound melodramatic, it's a scary. Here's hoping that handling those fears that we United fans need to be able to entrust in a manager is a skill that Fergie passes down to Moyes. We've too much invested in this club to be able to cope if it's not.
And so it is - with expectations for the future slightly lowered (how can anyone ever exceed them?) - that on Sunday we part with the greatest manager we'll ever witness in our lifetime. Neither football no Manchester United will ever be the same for those of us who've experienced it all. But, then again, at times like this you just have to be happy that you experienced it to begin with.
Thank you Sir Alex.
PICK: Man Utd
Rick Nash is a former pro-wrestler who currently DJs for hire, makes piss-poor sports bets and has a community radio show. Altogether, he's a real bum, and you should be ashamed of yourself if you thought this piece was in any way insightful or entertaining. But still, follow him on Twitter and stuff.
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