This Is The End

by Rick Nash

Look...I know I've spent an entire season bemoaning the 'gambling gods' and lamenting their hatred for me. I also understand that this is completely and utterly irrational, fixating on mythical figments of my imagination instead of blaming a combination of poor predictions and shitty luck.

But hear me out this one last time.

Desperately needing a win, last weekend I put a '#JustWin' treble on, not to get good value or win any decent amount of money (as is usually the goal), just to win. That would do.

My picks? Man Utd (won), Everton (won) and...Man City.

For fuck sa..

I then switched attention to the NBA Playoffs. My strategy with playoffs in the NBA/NFL has worked quite well for me in the past. It's simple: imagine you were a new fan to the sport, knowing nothing beforehand, what team would you say seems most likely to win? The reason for this logic is because playoffs in US sport are a different beast to anything we experience this side of the water. Teams that have had otherwise-terrible seasons can go on a run and win it all (shout out to the Baltimore Ravens, who beat my colleague Angry Andy's beloved 49ers in the Superbowl) in spite of form, strength of team or any other reasonable statistic.

With that in mind and, following a fantastic run in the Western Conference that turned them from nobodies into a side inspired by an emerging basketball superstar (Steph Curry), I placed the following bet:

Just put €5 on the Golden State Warriors to win the Western Conference @ 9/1. Sorry GSW, you guys were doing so well until now. #NBAPlayoffs
— Rick Nash (@AMTRick) May 13, 2013

The result? They lost their next two games pretty convincingly to the San Antonio Spurs and got knocked out. Noticing a pattern yet?

Then on Wednesday, I had what I saw as a controversial pick inserted into my online Paddy Power betslip, only to bottle it on account of another gambling rule of mine.

The rule: Never bet against Phil Taylor. (Hey, it worked when I called the World Darts Final to the exact score)

The pick: Michael van Gerwen to win the Premier League Darts playoffs.

Of course, this then ended up happening...

...and Michael van Gerwen is your new Premier League Darts Champion. DO YOU SEE WHAT I MEAN?! WHAT HAVE I EVER DONE TO YOU GAMBLING GODS!

...ahem.

Managing Expectations

by Rick Nash

That was the week that was...

• In Spain, about two-thirds of Real Madrid's members believe that Jose Mourinho is damaging the club. Rivals Barcelona continue to dominate La Liga, this weekend winning the Basque derby in impressive style (4-0 over Espanyol).
• Closer to home, Paul Lambert's time at Villa sunk to a new low with a humiliating semi-final, 1st leg defeat to Bradford in the Capital One Cup.
• Swansea continued to bring Rafa Benitez back down to earth by humbling Chelsea 2-0 - at Stamford Bridge - in the other semi. 
• Meanwhile, in the FA Cup, Newcastle were the highest profile Premier League side upset (by Brighton) in the weekend's opening tie.

Perhaps the one stellar point raised in last week's column (which was otherwise disastrous, picks-wise, with 5-upset bets yielding a grand total of €0) is that this is the year when the 'super manager' actually wouldn't be able to swoop in and save a struggling club. The expected turnaround that Harry Redknapp would bring at QPR appears to have fallen short. Martin O'Neill, previously hailed as THE 'super manager' for a struggling club, isn't having things all his own way at Sunderland. The managers mentioned in the above bullet points all continue to unceremoniously blunder, despite their considerable reputations.

We think that bringing in a big name boss who has done wonders at another club will turn around fortunes when a club is struggling, but in 2012/13, is that still the case?

The FA Cup-set Specials

by Rick Nash

NEVER ask Balotelli to do burpees...

Contrary to popular belief...I don't enjoy losing money.

So for me to sit here and even attempt an accumulator on FA Cup 3rd Round day would only serve to waste your time. I quit. I've tried it the past few years and found that trying to bet on a selection of games together, on the very DAY were upset results thrive, is like trying to order pizza on Christmas Day. You're there to eat Turkey, the day is pretty much designed for you to eat Turkey, so don't fight a losing battle and eat your Domino's some other time.

That doesn't mean you can't enjoy the Turkey, though.