Some people make New Year's resolutions, but if you're a shameless sports gambler like me you make new season's resolutions. So, after a, quite frankly, ridiculous 5-5 draw between Man Utd and West fucking Brom cost me a winning record for 2012/13, I've decided to go with a more reliable, proven method this time around.
The Euro Club Index would've probably been a better website to follow than this one if you actually cared about winning money, and didn't just have some weird fetish for seeing this useless bum lose his wages. Using a complex system of algorithms based on win-probability and teams' results records, I can safely say that I have no clue how the maths behind the Euro Club Index works. But I know enough to understand that they made an 8% profit on their match predictions over the past three years and correctly called the top 7 positions of last season's Premier League at the start of the season. I like those odds, so this season I'm sticking with the form horse and basing my predictions on the Euro Club Index's probabilities. That's right, even The Accumulator is going the moneyball route.
Where I come in is that I'll correspond the best probabilities with the best value bets and try to put together attractive trebles and accumulator bets for you throughout the season, recording my own win-loss records along with my net earnings for the season to give you full perspective.
To remind you all, here are some of my own personal gambling rules (to be taken with a pinch of salt, since I'm 1-1 in actually earning money on a season-by-season basis):
- Don't bet on a team/competitor because they're 'due a win': the number one gambling fallacy. Ride a hot hand until they strike out. If a team is on-form, favour them against a team who has quality in the line-up but can't put it together on the field. Until proven otherwise, presume that Fernando Torres will never re-discover his magic touch or that Liverpool aren't too big to fail.
- Draws represent big money in accumulators and are relatively easy to spot: The Secret Footballer explains the reason why players are happy to settle for draws in matches against heated rivals better than I can ("Towards the end of one of these matches an opposition player turned to me and said: 'Tell the ref that'll do, it's 1-1, blow the whistle and everyone's happy.' I felt the same way – avoiding defeat brings a huge sense of relief."), and the same logic also applies for teams under any kind of pressure to deliver, such as sides facing relegation 6-pointers. The one big win that I had last season was a treble of three draws. On a similar note...
- You only need to win once: When playing for trebles or accumulators, you're not looking to win every week. You're not even looking to win most weeks. Obviously that would be great and an ideal circumstance, but the smart gambler knows that you're playing the long game and one or two big money wins over the course of a season could yield a better return than 38 small, safe wins. We play for the big win here. It's more heart-wrenching, but also more fun that way.
- NEVER BET ON WIGAN: This rule has been made considerably easier to enforce by their relegation from the Premier League, but I'm sure a new side will raise my ire as 2013/14 progresses, breaking my heart by being awkwardly good and bad at the same time.
- Avoid betting on the early kick-offs: TV companies, as well as bookies, know what they're doing. So while a, say, Man City home clash with Stoke may look inconspicuous to you or I, banking on a home victory, you'll often see that the TV companies have - for whatever reason - earmarked this game as deserved of television time. And they're usually right. The 12.45pm game is usually a banker for an upset special and should thus be avoided at all costs.
Before we get to this week's quick picks, let's use the disadvantage of absolutely no hindsight to make some season-long bets that we'll return to next May.
(All odds courtesy of Paddy Power)
Robin Van Persie - Top Goalscorer 2013/14 @ 7/2
Mourinho to get a touchline ban @ 5/2
Oh come on, you don't really believe that after the most tumultuous season of his already-storied managerial career, Jose Mourinho has turned a new leaf and magically become 'The Happy One', do you? Chelsea are still an unbalanced force, now forced to look at alternative options to Rooney and even examining the possibility of a Samuel Eto'o/Mourinho reunion to fix their striker problems (how do you think Torres, Demba Ba and Lukaku feel with their combined forces still representing a perceived 'problem' for management)? As we'll see in my next prop bet, I don't think it's all bad at Stamford Bridge, but I also don't see Mourinho's return going swimmingly either. He'll mouth off and get sent to the stands for a few games, wait and see.Chelsea to win Premier League @ 9/4
Having said that, in the first ever Premier League where the winning side starts the next season with a new manager, who looks the most balanced of the contenders? You'd almost be tempted to bump Spurs up to contenders status for Andre-Villas Boas' stunning composure during a tough summer, but let's be real here. Moyes will learn the ropes and likely pick up a cup medal to ease his near-impossible transition into the hot seat. It pains me to see Manuel Pellegrini (coach of my beloved Villareal during their most successful period) in the City post, but for all of his outstanding successes, picking up silverware isn't something he's known for. Pellegrini's luck with winning trophies is as such that, even when he broke Real Madrid's record for total points for the season, Barcelona broke their own record, Real finished 2nd and he was sacked.He's a higher profile version of Martin O'Neill type of boss, in that his skill is making a lot out of a little. If City were looking to build a steady ship with consistent but not spectacular results, he'd be a great go-to coach. Billionaire owners don't go for that though, they go for extravagance. Which leaves us with the most steady ship of all, the Mourinho-Abramovich alliance at Chelsea, still containing several pieces of the puzzle that brought Jose almost instant success upon his first tenure in England. As a United fan, I'm not worried that Fergie's departure will be Mourinho's gain as a new club enters into an era of dominance in England, but in a transitional season Chelsea appear most ready to get out of the blocks fast.
West Brom to be relegated @ 7/1
I can't believe more people aren't seeing this. West Brom got off to a phenomenal start last year under manager Steve Clarke, then remained steady at best and uninspiring at other times as the season took its toll on them. They were, at times, a one-man side propped up by Romelu Lukaku...who has since returned to Chelsea and been replaced by a 34-year old Nicolas Anelka. If Anelka hasn't lost his touch for scoring goals, I wonder if he's lost his touch for creating dressing room disharmony. Part of me was tempted to look at a treble for all three relegated clubs to go down, but that simply never happens (of course there's always a first for everything), and there's always a side who seemed to have their shit together who seem to inexplicably fall apart during the season. When Clarke took over this time last year, people were questioning him, despite their hot start last season why have those questions stopped? People are tipping Norwich for a rough ride, but I see Chris Hughton as far more proven in being able to keep his head above water than Clarke. The fact is that, this time around, WBA will be relying on Shane Long to keep them ticking over for most of the campaign (with bits of inspiration from Anelka, they hope). And, as much as I rate Shane Long, relying on him to keep your side in the Premier League (alongside a still-inexperienced coach) seems a recipe for disaster. There's good value in this one.So, with that said, let's take a look at this weekend. I'll also throw in some UFC/WWE into the mix with the former's debut on Fox Sports 1 and WWE SummerSlam taking place this weekend:
This Weekend's Quick Picks
Norwich vs Everton - Draw @ 23/10
There's going to be at least one draw this weekend, and this seems a safer bet than the prime candidate of Sunderland/Fulham. You have to remember that, with the latter game, it's Martin Jol vs Paolo Di f'n Canio. The former was having people call for his head despite keeping Fulham completely safe from relegation by the end of last season, whereas Di Canio has never been known for playing it safe. In a battle of Chris Hughton vs Roberto Martinez, I see two guys looking to keep their heads low and avoid the media glare so that they can quietly get on with things. So, if nothing miraculous happens early on, neither will be overly-willing to push the team on in search of the 3 points in case it spectacularly backfires and people start calling for their heads.Sidenote: I'm not going near any of the promoted sides this weekend, since promoted sides upset teams on the opening day of the campaign like project managers get fired on the opening week of The Apprentice. And there's no way of telling who's going to do it (though if I HAD to pick, Ian Holloway's Palace side picking off a Spurs side at home would seem a decent shout, and it'd also send the Gareth Bale transfer saga into overdrive).
Swansea vs Man Utd - United @ 10/11
Look at those odds! How are United a steal at near evens? Because David Moyes is the manager now? The same David Moyes who beat Swansea 3-0 away in September of last year, without having a title-winning XI at his disposal?! The Euro Club Index also rate United's chances of victory at 60%, which is as good as you're probably going to get away against respectable opposition. Yeah I'm grabbing this one while I can...UFC on Fox Sports 1 - Conor McGregor to beat Max Holloway by KO @ 10/11
I've got a confession to make: I'm not the huge Conor McGregor fan that my country expects me to be. He's a talented guy, no doubt, but he grates on me. I get that he wants to make a name for himself in a sport where entertaining is half the battle, but he comes across as talking way above his station for a guy who, let's remember, is only 1-0 in the UFC. It was a spectacular win that earned him a cool 50k 'KO of the Night' bonus, granted, but it's still just one win. Maybe it's the fake-American accent that he sometimes drifts into that annoys me, I dunno. Anyway, I think he's headed for a massive setback at some stage soon (possibly when he's paired with another fringe competitor at Featherweight in Diego Brandao), just not this Saturday. Holloway is a talented fighter with more UFC experience than McGregor, and he's only lost to top-level opposition in Justin Bermudez and Dustin Poirier previously, but I still think McGregor will prove too puzzling for him with his unique fighting style and he'll wind up the wrong end of a KO finish.
WWE SummerSlam - Daniel Bryan to beat John Cena @ 2/5
Since I covered the other SummerSlam main event, CM Punk vs Brock Lesnar, in my Balls.ie preview this week, I'm going to finish off by giving what many see as the night's real main event a look. WWE are fixing to give this match the works, booking-wise, in the style of such classics as The Rock/Triple H (Backlash 2000), Vince McMahon/Shane McMahon (WrestleMania X-Seven), Hogan/Triple H (Backlash 2002) and CM Punk/John Cena (Money in the Bank 2011), naming Triple H as the special guest referee and placing the likes of Vince McMahon, Raw GM Brad Maddox and Money in the Bank winner, Randy Orton, around the periphery in an effort to stack the odds against their current MVP, Daniel Bryan. But I believe they also understand that the only way they can mess this one up is by not having Bryan walk out with the belt on Sunday. His current momentum as a top dog is too strong to resist and holding off any longer could risk all of that evaporating right in front of them.So I see a referee bump for Triple H (perhaps inadvertently caused by Bryan), followed by Vince leading Maddox down to the ring in a referee shirt to count his shoulders down, only for Bryan to kick out. As both Cena and Bryan regain their senses, Cena realises hi-jinx are afoot and chases Maddox around the ring, only for Brad to walk into a now-awoken Triple H who nails him with a Pedigree. Meanwhile, Bryan has now risen to his feet and rolls Cena up for the 1-2-3. They'll tease that Orton will attempt to cash-in his Money in the Bank title opportunity, but he'll either back down or lose. Orton's appearance on-stage after Cena and Bryan's epic promo made the whole thing too obvious, and WWE are in the game of misdirection when it comes to big twists like this. Bryan leaves SummerSlam the champion and, meanwhile, the now-extremely drunk crowd in the Woolshed Baa in Dublin go absolutely crazy.
Hopefully, by that stage, I'll also have some cash. But the entire jig will probably be up by the time we get to Sunday night. Oh well, here's to another season of hurt.
Rick Nash is a former pro-wrestler who currently DJs for hire, makes piss-poor sports bets and has a community radio show. Altogether, he's a real bum, and you should be ashamed of yourself if you thought this piece was in any way insightful or entertaining. But still, follow him on Twitter and stuff.
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