Showing posts with label woolshed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label woolshed. Show all posts

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Moneyballin'

by Rick Nash



Some people make New Year's resolutions, but if you're a shameless sports gambler like me you make new season's resolutions. So, after a, quite frankly, ridiculous 5-5 draw between Man Utd and West fucking Brom cost me a winning record for 2012/13, I've decided to go with a more reliable, proven method this time around.

The Euro Club Index would've probably been a better website to follow than this one if you actually cared about winning money, and didn't just have some weird fetish for seeing this useless bum lose his wages. Using a complex system of algorithms based on win-probability and teams' results records, I can safely say that I have no clue how the maths behind the Euro Club Index works. But I know enough to understand that they made an 8% profit on their match predictions over the past three years and correctly called the top 7 positions of last season's Premier League at the start of the season. I like those odds, so this season I'm sticking with the form horse and basing my predictions on the Euro Club Index's probabilities. That's right, even The Accumulator is going the moneyball route.

Where I come in is that I'll correspond the best probabilities with the best value bets and try to put together attractive trebles and accumulator bets for you throughout the season, recording my own win-loss records along with my net earnings for the season to give you full perspective.

To remind you all, here are some of my own personal gambling rules (to be taken with a pinch of salt, since I'm 1-1 in actually earning money on a season-by-season basis):