by Sean Coffey
They say you are what you eat. Well I fed you so much Oakland Raiders content last week that that’s exactly what my picks became: rubbish!
Re-read the above sentence.
This time slower.
Still think it doesn’t make a lot of sense? Try one more time.
You can see, somewhat, where I’m coming from. But the simple fact is that is doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Now on to our second sentence...
Oakland (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY
Alex Smith is a consistent QB that doesn’t get points, so you can see where I’m coming from... somewhat. And the sentence makes... ZERO SENSE considering how bad the Raiders offence is and how good the Chiefs D is with the potential for pick 6s! A home game for Kansas City is slowly getting into Seattle home game territory. Last week, they broke the record for loudest fans. A record previously held by the Seahawks.
So why did I make this pick? A stupid impulse decision. As soon as I saw the odds, I went for it.
I have a new strategy for this week that is going to guarantee me victory and break the mould from what this blog and website have been all about thus far this year. Sorry Rick, it’s true. We suck worse than a Jags-Raiders Thursday night game! (Ed's Note: Oh yeah, totally agree)
Here’s the ingenious plan: I’m running through all the games this week. I’m going to make my own predictions on who I’d fancy to win and by how much. Then, and only then, will I look at the line. This is going to work... maybe.
Bucs @ Falcons
Only one win between both teams so far this season. Who would have thought that? Both desperately need a win. Both teams have been crippled by injuries. All over the Falcons losses have been by 7 points or fewer. The Bucs are averaging less than 13 points a game compared to Atlanta’s 25 as well as the falcons averaging nearly 400 yards a game.
I’d be confident with Falcons by 7.
Bengals @ Lions
Both teams are 4-2 with the Lions undefeated in Ford Field thus far this season (2-0). The Bengals are too hit and miss. In perhaps Andy Dalton’s only good game of the year, they had an OT victory over the Bills. They blew a 14 point lead in that game as well as double digit leads against both the Packers and Bears this year. They currently sit on top of a poor division. Cincinnati have won their previous three meetings against the Lions. That stat may be said during RedZone Sunday but they’ve only played once in the last 6 years.
Very close game with the slight edge to the Lions. So steer clear of this one.
Buffalo @ Miami
The 3-2 Dolphins are, wait, hang on a second. Yep, Ryan Tannenhill just got sacked while I typed this. He’s been sacked 24 times this season thus far. That’s nearly 5 sacks a game! The Bills rank third in the league with 21 sacks. So Tannenhill is in for along night. Buffalo also look to snap a six game road losing streak against a team that can not run the football. Miami are averaging 70 yards running a game. With an ineffective running game and Tannenhill under pressure in the pocket, I think the Bills could nick this.
Bills by 3
Patriots @ Jets
PATRIOTS, PATRIOTS, PATRIOTS!!! Usually this is the type of game where I go with the hot team if the odds are under 8. But that’s what I did with Indy last week against the Chargers! New England have 10 of their starters injured including one Danny Amendola missing yet another game, this time due to a concussion. Gronk could be out, depending on his doctor. According to reports, the team are increasingly agitated with Gronk after seeing him physically able to compete in training. Tom Brady has been dominant against the Jets. Though the last game was only 13-10 in week 2. It was a Thursday night game and maybe his receivers have learned to catch the ball? Jets have injuries in their secondary and what better man to take advantage of the miss matches than the Golden Boy.
New England by 6
Cowboys @ Eagles
Both teams are 3-3. Both teams lost to Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs. Both teams are on top of the worst division in football after years of being the most competitive. Well, it still is competitive but for all the wrong reasons right now.
Could go either way by any margin. STAY AWAY!!
Bears @ Redskins
The Redskins are only two games off the leaders of their division. It’s a lot nicer way of saying that they are 1-4. That could change Sunday. Shanahan knows Jay Cutler, after Cutler played his first few seasons in Denver before the trade for Kyle Orton. The Bears have only won 1 of their last 3 which was a Thursday night game over the winless Giants so I wouldn’t be confident in either team.
If I had to pick, Bears by 2.
St Louis @ Carolina
Chargers @ Jaguars
After last week's game against the Broncos, you would expect that that win for Jacksonville is coming. However, I don’t think it’s against this Chargers team. The Chargers are 3-3. The slow start to the season could be attributed to new coach Mike McCoy implementing his system. But like the Indy pick last week, this sounds like a pick that would lead me into a false sense of security.
Chargers by 4
49ers @ Titans
Well, we know I’m going with the Niners. We know that I love that Patrick Willis is back and the defense back to getting turnovers. We know I’m loving the Kaepernick-Davis connection. We know that I’m loving the running game with the 49ers averaging 181 yards on the ground during their last three wins. We know that I’m loving the fact that the best is yet to come. Mario Manningham is back on the practice field and might play Sunday. We know I totally forgot about the Titans.
Niners by 6
Browns @ Packers
Well the fact that the Packers are at home, after a bye week, against the Browns, makes me want to go with the Packers. Both teams have won three games this year. Both Green Bay losses were on the road and it’s very hard to imagine a Cleveland team winning in Lambeau, even though they’ve won three of their last four and came within a bonehead play by Weedon of winning their last one. Bonehead? I never say that. Browns fans were so infuriated with the play that one fan advertised the QB position for the Browns on Craigslist. Surprisingly, to me, Weedon called it a ‘bonehead’ play too.
Packers by 7
Texans @ Chiefs
The Texans are starting a third string QB Sunday in Case Keenum. Many of you will be aware of Mr. Keenum’s stats in the NFL. Yep, this is his very first game. Although he was with the practice squad all last year and had a great college career at the University of Houston, he was undrafted before signing with the Texans and is now going against a team that is a turnover machine, in one of the loudest stadiums in the country. 46% of the points that the Chiefs have put in the board is through defense. This offense is yet to run on all cylinders. If it does, they will be a very dangerous team.
I love the underdog story in this too much. Houston desperately needs a change of pace and direction. Maybe, just maybe, Keenum can pull off the upset of the week.
Because of my “guarantee”, I’m playing it safe; Chiefs by 3 with a good performance from Keenum.
Ravens @ Steelers
A game that use to be one of the highlights of any NFL weekly schedule just doesn’t have the hype this year. Neither team is above .500. And every time I go with Pittsburgh, it bites me in the ass.
Broncos @ Colts
The game of the week. Peyton Manning returns to Indy and all the media hype surrounding he said this or that before the Manning trade, to get or not to get Luck etc, will not mean a thing come Sunday. Does Manning want to win against his former team? Of course, that’s what football is all about! He’s probably more upset about how his offense played against the Jags last week than all this media hype. He’ll see old faces, catch up with them but once the game starts, it’s all business.
Both teams had their worst offensive displays last week and will look to rectify that. Right now, if you boiled this down to Manning or Luck, I’m still going with Peyton Manning.
Broncos by 3
Surprisingly, there’s a division 3 college football game on Monday with a team from New York going against a Minnesota team. Seemingly there’s a very good running back on this Minnesota team. Apart from that there’s not much less to watch!
On a serious note, it’s amazing to me that we are in week 7 and there’s two games on this weekend where the combined win total from each team playing each other is 1.
So, any of my lines work out with the bookies this week?
Falcons are -7, Niners are -3.5 and Patriots are -3.
Only three teams did! Well, that was easy!!
Bears +1 is tempting though... so is Ravens +3 at Steelers!
But I’m sticking with the Falcons, Niners and Patriots when I've guaranteed victory... guarantee is such a strong word.
Oh and damn you New Orleans and Indianapolis... and a big ole fuck you to Dave!
Dave is a Raiders fan I know. Yep, they exist in this country. Damn you Oakland!
Happy football people!