NFL: Angry Andy's 5 Picks

by Angry Andy
 
A few weeks ago, I talked about how the NFL was only starting to take off this side of the pond and that people I could talk to about the game were few and far between. @AMTRick was definitely not one of those people. But, as you could guess from running a sports page and pod cast, he is definitely a sports fan. Over the last two seasons, especially this season, he has embraced the sport and is an avid reader of this blog (as I assume all editors should be, right?)

So when he sent me a list of questions this week for the blog, I was genuinely intrigued. Easily a much better forum than in person because he will clutch onto his argument in defiance and can make you feel stupid for disagreeing even if you know you’re right. So without further adieu, this weeks blog:

@AMTRick: How happy are you right now that you can do a Bill Simmons-style 'squint and it'll look like a mailbag' blog? You are welcome, sir. 

Thank you. I really like how this question is phrased. “Right now” is key here as I’m sure some of the following questions are going to be sly jabs in some form or another. I’ll probably end up hating you by the time this is over.


@AMTRick: I think I've finally figured out the trick to the NFL: predict the unpredictable. Think about it, with so much money and resources coming into the game, when teams or players get on a hot streak and everyone sits up and pays attention they usually fall from the headlines within a week or two. Why? Because the 1,486 coaches and staff employed by each franchise have figured them out! For example, if you somehow managed to draft Dougie Martin into your fantasy team after his monster 50-point game...you'd already missed the boat (he's scored 11 and 14 points since). See also: Shonn Greene, the Colts, Brian Hartline, CJ2K, the Dolphins, Bears and Vikings. So if you want to predict what's actually going to happen, instead of looking at who's on form, look at who everyone REALISES is on form and the capacity their opponents have to put an end to that, if that makes sense.

With that said...shit, why do I have Colin Kaepernick starting in fantasy this week?

PS: If that nugget of football/gambling genius helps you win an accumulator, you owe me a pint.

If you predict the unpredictable, would that not just make it predictable? But yes, I totally agree with this and feel fantasy football is nothing but luck (okay, I have lost my last three games straight after almost being a guaranteed lock for the playoffs. And now I look to be beaten by a man they call Puddin. Don’t ask.) Because of this question, I was half tempted to go with Cheifs (+10) over Broncos. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it.

Also, fair play on figuring this trick out. They should have a name for it. Anything can happen on any given week. And most games are on a Sunday. Hmmm . . .

@AMTRick: If you had to have one of this season's rookie QBs throwing for your team in the Superbowl this year, who would it be and why? Forget about whether it's still possible or not, solely based on who you'd have the most faith in delivering on that stage.

Andrew Luck, no question. Luck has had the best season thus far, in my book, with the greatest amount of pressure. Let’s face it, the question boils down to Luck or RG3. RG3 took over a Redskins team that has not had a great QB starter in years and most people acknowledged that it would take time. RG3 has been outstanding this year and more enjoyable to watch than Luck. As a number one draft pick, the spotlight has been on Luck, combine that with the shadow of Peyton Manning in Indy and this kid has had an uphill battle from day 1 on what was the worst team in the league. Luck has transformed himself into one of the best Quarterbacks in the league. He has a similar style of playing the  Quarterback position to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. RG3 is more like a Michael Vick at his peak. Manning or Brady at their best in the Superbowl or Vick?

@AMTRick: Talking heads like Wilbon and Kornheiser on PTI argue that you can almost rule out the Falcons' and Texans' Superbowl chances "because they haven't been there before". Why? They've been to the play-offs before and been humbled. They come back, they improve, they do better. If they've improved enough...they win. That's how sports work. Look at how Chelsea and Miami Heat bounced back to win the Champions League and NBA Finals just this year, for example. I know what you're thinking: they've been to the finals beforehand and lost so have that final experience that everyone seems to think is so important. But let me remind you that the 49ers are also your pick to win the Superbowl this year. How many Superbowls has Alex Smith played in? (Yes, this entire question has just been a massive ruse to rub that in your face. But still, answer the question...)

And so the digs begin, cheers man! I see your points though you have used some horrible, horrible examples here. Miami Heat got to the championship game the previous year and actually lead in the series finals before losing so they knew what it took. Chelsea, with a similar squad, had also been in the finals before losing on penalties a few years back. At some point during those final losses, a lot of people believed that those teams could win it all. You have never had that same feeling with Atlanta or Houston for the simple reason that neither team has been in a Superbowl in the past 5 years. Neither team has even reached the Championship game. They have not performed under the brightest lights and are always going to be seen that way until they finally do win these big games. The Falcons have beaten mediocre teams this season. The NFC is stacked with contenders for the Superbowl, most notably Niners, Packers and Giants. Texans, meanwhile, could be a contender in my book. The AFC is an easier route to the Superbowl and Houston have a tremendous offense as well as defense (apart from the last few games).

The 49ers have been to the Championship game and were a Kyle Williams knee away from being Superbowl bound. That’s probably my most over used sentence in the past 10 months. As you said yourself, “they come back, they improve, they do better.” And this years 49ers have improved!

@AMTRick: Why have we still not learned to NOT let the New York Giants go under the radar in the media when we all acknowledge that that's EXACTLY what they want us to do?!? You didn't even think I'd send you a question about the Giants that didn't discuss how much Eli sucks and is going to fail this year, did you? SEE?? WE KNEW THIS WOULD HAPPEN!

Speaking of which...ya think the Packers are drinking some of the Giants 'peak while nobody's looking' kool aid?

Giants won the Superbowl in 2007 and again in 2011 season. In between Superbowl winning seasons, do you know how many playoff games the Giants have won?

ZERO!

Do you know how many times, they went to the playoffs?

Once! In the 2008 season the 12-4 Giants lost to the Philadelphia Eagles (wow, Eagles in the playoffs, that seems ancient!). The Giants don’t necessarily have this winning formula locked down. Eli Manning does not mean to have his worst run of form since his rookie season. No touchdown passes in his last 4 games. The Giants will make the playoffs but, while they won’t be perceived as a team that can win it all, opposing teams (especially the Packers and Niners) will not under estimate them. They will not repeat. The Packers are about to take control of the NFC North after a slow start to the season. Though losses to Seattle and the Colts don’t seem as bad now as they did when they happened. They are peaking at the right time but Aaron Rodgers is too good of a Quarterback to be slipping under anyone’s radar.

@AMTRick: Some household advice, if you wouldn't mind: what's the best way to dispose of that '#TebowTime' t-shirt I purchased on eBay after last year's Broncos/Steelers game?

I love it! By the way, did you know Tebow didn’t play a single snap in the blowout to the Patriots because of two broken ribs, yet he was cleared to play? The interest in Tebow is declining and I hate the Jets for this! Keep the shirt till next season where some team is likely to pick him up. Tebow has only been involved in 62 snaps this year. Does New York not realize that it took him THREE QUARTERS to warm up last year?!

@AMTRick: Can you please write a convincing argument as to why Sean Payton should replace Andy Reid as Eagles head coach? I need some hope and even the most optimistic of Eagles fans seem to think this is a no-go.

You’re really pushing the boundaries of our friendship with this one. Want me to find a cure for cancer while I’m at it? Build a time machine? Explain the logic of a Raiders fan?

Dear Mr. King Payton,
You need to pick a team that, like your New Orleans Saints, have a corner stone to build a franchise upon. And for irreplaceable cornerstones, you need a solid Quarterback with a potential to become elite. Ideally you would want this Quarterback already signed with the team you intend to sign for which is why the Philadelphia Eagles are . . . (thinking) . . . The Eagles are  . . . .

No, that’s not the convincing argument we need.

Dear Mr King Almighty Payton
Onside kick for the Superbowl baby! Genius! You sir, are a god! Which is why you need to sign for a team with a history of winning. . . .

No wait, that’s definitely not it!

Dear Mr Payton
I’m sending you a blank cheque, add the amount of zero’s you need and come to the city of brotherly love where we have the “Rocky” stairs and a really old big bell that needs refurbishment.

We’ll put this in the maybe pile for now

@AMTRick:A few weeks ago, you tried to call me out about saying that I "didn't see it" when it comes to the Bears. How's that working out for ya now?

Damn, ruling them out after one game? Most teams experience this in a season, the Giants lost seven last year and the Niners got schooled this year. If they win tonight against the Vikings, they will more than likely make the playoffs. Get back to me in January on this one!

@AMTRick: Tell the readers who Puddin is, why he SHOULD be shit at fantasy football, then explain to me how the fuck he's beating everyone else in our league?!! Please!

There are some questions that just can not be answered. Puddin is a guy who barely knows the game and bases everything on projections. He is like that one guy in poker that doesn’t completely understand what he is doing. He plays hands that should not be played but you don’t call because you underestimated his stupidity, therefore he wins making you look stupid. And he has that smug look on his face and keeps getting great hands while you get okay hands and call him on his bluff because he has a stupid look on his face. That actually is just his face!

@AMTRick: Why would anyone with any kind of decent footballing knowledge choose to follow the Oakland Raiders?

Damn it. I’m lost on this one. Nicknames on Wiki: America’s Most Wanted, Da Raidahs, Jokeland, Men In Black

Not even making this up.  They have no decent logic of the English language. Joke!

@AMTRick: Why would anyone with any kind of decent knowledge about REAL football choose to follow Aston Villa?

Paul McGrath, Steve Stauton, Tony Daly, Dalian Atkinson, Dean Saunders. Players who played at the time I started following them when we beat Man United in the 1994 League Cup final.

And because of your needless jab, why would anyone follow a team with ZERO SUPERBOWLS?!

Even the Oakland Raiders have three. And damn you, I lasted 12 weeks without saying anything positive about the Raiders!

@AMTRick: How devoted are the Pittsburgh Steelers to making you look like a twat for predicting they'd go to the Superbowl?

There are times in a man’s life where you must admit you’re wrong. This is not one of those times. . . Just yet. If the Steelers lose to the Browns tonight then . . . next question!

@AMTRick: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning: odds of them meeting each other in the AFC Championship game? Doesn't it feel like both of them should bow out while they're both on top if that were to happen? Who wants to see them become the boxer who didn't know when to quit?

Like Ricky Hatton last night? No sports star knows their time, they are always last to know. But yes, this would be a phenomenal AFC Championship game and one that is hugely believable (mainly because Big Ben is still out, of course). For this to happen, one of these teams, most likely Denver, is going to have to make a trip to Texas and beat Houston. Manning can beat that offense and the Denver D might be enough to contain Schaub and co just enough for that dream championship game. I still remember the 2006 come from behind classic between Manning’s Colts and the Patriots

@AMTRick: Oh, and if that were to happen, who would you feel more confident for the 49ers to face in the Superbowl?

I think the 49ers would be able to pick apart that Patriots defense more easily than the Broncos, who could force a few turn overs. Then again, who would the Niners have throwing the football? The feel good factor for Denver would also be huge. The last time the Niners played the Broncos (under Elway) in the Superbowl. 55-10 to the Niners. Biggest lopsided Superbowl to this date. Relevance to the question? None, but I like the stat!

@AMTRick: I hope by now you've used the "Yep. This is my reader," gag. If not, well somebody had to...

That’s not a question.

The damn Rams let me down last week! Because of the push Thursday night in the Texans-Lions game, I won my accumulator!!!! Hate to say I told ya, but after 11 failed attempts, I told ya!

On to this weeks picks before I jinx them!

(HOME TEAM in Caps):

Seahawks (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
While Seattle are only 1-4 on the road this year, they are coming off a bye week so I like their chances better. The Dolphins have hit a bad run of form lately and are suffering from a lot of Ryan Tannenhill turnovers. Seattle’s defense is not a great place to start to turn that around and I’m predicting a big game from Marshawn Lynch after the Dolphins leaking rushing yards in the last two games.

Steelers (-1.5) over BROWNS
Well if I pick them to go the Superbowl, I have to pick this game! But they have Charlie Batch under center I hear you say. The third string! Well, that third string is 5-2 in starts for Pittsburgh including last seasons 27-0 victory over the Rams. Translation, Batch has to be consistent and be turnover free while that Steelers defense needs to dominate!


Ravens (+1) over CHARGERS
Main reason I’m going with this? Philip Rivers. Ed Reed is back after getting his one game suspension over turned and Rivers is just a turnover machine. I think he knew a spot needed to be filled with Vick going down. Chargers gave up the playoff hopes when they lost to the Broncos last week. Norv Turner's time in San Diego is almost up, and he knows it!

Packers (+3) over GIANTS
Here’s hoping Green Bay handle their “revenge” game better than the Niners. New York is coming off the bye week and will be happy with the results they have seen elsewhere (Dallas losing to Washington). The Giants will win their division regardless of tonight’s result, Packers will feel like they still need to win games to get there. Rodgers is hitting peak form and it makes @AMTRick’s earlier question about these two teams all the more interesting.

49ers (-1) over SAINTS
Yeah, I included the 49ers in my picks! Hell yeah I did. Why? Look at that line against a team that is not going to the playoffs bar a collapse for the Bears or Seahawks. Saints are 5-1 in their last 6 games. They beat the Eagles, Raiders and Chargers in those games as well as two division games. Sean Payton is not back on the sidelines. Drew Brees is great, the Niners have allowed the fewest points per game (13.4). Aldon Smith is a sacking machine. The Saints have the lowest ranked defense in the league which Frank Gore is going to run right through! I still don’t know who the “hot hand” is throwing the ball but Harbaugh has earned this respect to make this decision without judgment from the Niners faithful

Happy Football People!

Thursday: 3-0
Last Week: 4-1

Season:  36-30

Accumulator: 1-11