7-for-7

by Rick Nash

It's been a rough few weeks.

First off, there was the painfully close bet that I wrote about in my last blog, which went EXACTLY to script (handicaps and all) aside from the first handicap of Italy (+14) costing me everything by a total of THREE POINTS! Even the outcome would've been fine if they'd either stopped one try from crossing the line or gotten across it themselves. United covered the (-1.0) handicap against QPR, Ronda Rousey finished in the 1st round with 11 seconds to go. Even my throwaway 'West Brom over Sunderland' bet, that I only added in to pad out the accumulator and make it interesting financially, came in with relative ease.

Fuck off Wales.

Following that? A darts accy that started exactly to script, with Robert Thornton easing to victory over Gary Anderson and Michael van Gerwen overcoming a slow start to pip Andy Hamilton, before going to absolute shit on the Phil Taylor match that you'd assume would be a banker (Taylor even led 6-5 and had darts for the match before being pegged back to a 6-6 draw with James Wade).

With last Saturday came further taunting: QPR opened the scoring against Southampton before the Saints, the home side, equalised and pushed forward in the second half. Man Utd and Everton had their games sewn up, while Swansea and Newcastle were still goalless, meaning one goal from Southampton would have me in the money. This was my time!

Then QPR scored. Then Swansea scored. And, in a matter of minutes, I go from genius to money-losing dickhead.

But let's not give up just yet. As I explained in the last blog, I am but one €10 victory away from winning the accumulator for the season (based on 38 weeks of €5 bets during the football calendar, giving me a total stake of €190 for the season. I won €180 on a treble in October. The darts bets are separate, with me getting over the line at €70 there).

Einstein once said that the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over-and-over and expecting different results. We're going to try something slightly different this time around, so, going 7-for-7 on the week's accumulator. Seven reasonable bets over seven days, spanning a total of four different sports.


But first, two tasty bets that I couldn't resist.

Premier League Darts
Barney/Whitlock/MVG treble
€5 gets €21.39.

4-way FA Cup 6th Round accumulator
Everton, Man City, Millwall & Man Utd
€5 gets €35.94.

Now, how we're going to win some cashmoney over the next week of sporting events...

7-way accumulator.
Picks in CAPS.

Thursday: Premier League Darts

As always, I'm going to start my betting weekend with some Premier League darts action. I'm actually glad to be getting away from a full-fledged, 5-way accumulator this week, because there are some matches this week that are just too close to call. Robert Thornton, the surprise form player in this Premier League, takes on a James Wade that's flying high after holding Taylor to a draw (a game he probably should've won). Adrian Lewis is due a return to form any day now, as he takes on Michael van Gerwen. You'd say MVG would be a lock on current form, and I've included him in my treble (nicked from Sky Sports pundit, Rod Harrington, mind) above, but Lewis is capable of beating anyone in the world when he wakes up. Meanwhile, Simon Whitlock (who's also included above) isn't taking to the Premier League as he usually does, being oddly inconsistent, and he faces a Wes Newton who seems to finally be settling into the season following his win over Adrian Lewis last week.

So my pick this week is with who I feel is the safest bet. Raymond van Barneveld has been a joy to watch for the past few months, as the Dutchman always is whenever he's not sulking and shaking his head at missed doubles. He's up against an Andy Hamilton that can't seem to get to grips with the shorter format thus far and, at 8/13, looks a lock for another win.

Pick: RAYMOND VAN BARNEVELD (8/13)  vs. Andy Hamilton


Friday: NBA Basketball

Onto NBA for Friday, as we near the playoff part of the season that we'll occasionally cover here once it kicks off in April. I'm not going to lie, despite the fact that I should be enjoying the Lakers' downfall after they stole star player Dwight Howard away from my Orlando Magic (confining us to now being one of the worst teams in the NBA), I want to see them in the play-offs. When you consider that, if they don't make it, we'll probably end up with a repeat of last year's San Antonio Spurs 4-0 sweep of the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference 1st Round, subbing the Lakers in instead of the Jazz is just much more fun.

As if to prove my point, on Wednesday night they went out and overturned a 25-point deficit to defeat the New Orleans Hornets, with Kobe Bryant finishing the game with 42 points and even Howard stepping up to contribute with an unbelievable block late on. This Lakers 'dream team' seem to have finally clicked, to a degree, and the Toronto Raptors will look ahead to their clash on Friday with some amount of trepidation. That said, the Raptors won the last time these sides met in January, and have since been bolstered by the addition of Rudy Gay to their roster. But the Lakers are running out of time and need to win every winnable game possible to make the playoffs. Kobe will do it all himself if he has to. And, even if he doesn't have to, Kobe will still do it all himself. Lakers win in LA.

Pick: Toronto @ LA LAKERS 


Saturday: Premier League Football

I'm leaving my FA Cup 6th Round predictions to my 4-way accumulator above and going with a Premier League 3pm kick-off instead here. I think we reach a stage in the FA Cup every year were the upsets start to give way to common sense and this is that stage. The only risky pick I've included is assuming United will bounce back against Chelsea and a Rafa Benitez with a point to prove, but who's better than Alex Ferguson at turning a controversial loss like Tuesday's one into a motivational tool?

Looking at the four Premier League clashes on Saturday, only one jumps out at me as a solid pick. Odd, then, that it involves me predicting that the bottom club will beat a side six places and ten points ahead of them. But I underestimated QPR away from home at my peril last week, and will learn from my mistake immediately by backing them to beat an uninspired Sunderland side in Loftus Road this week. I'm not sure if Harry Redknapp will be able to turn the negative, behind-the-scenes press stories into a recipe that ensures their Premier League survival, but it seems to be working for them in the short term. Paddy Power are also giving great odds for a home side coming off a win, too.

Pick: QPR (23/10) vs. Sunderland


Sunday: Six Nations Rugby

Depending on how Saturday's results go, this week's Six Nations Sunday could be re-named England's victory parade. Nobody expects Italy, who've been a shadow of the side that shocked France in the opening round, to cause an upset here and Paddy Power are crucifying their chances with an official handicap of (-25.0). I'm in no doubt about the outcome, but think Paddy Power are only making it interesting for themselves with that harsh handicap. England could easily win by that margin, so I won't back Italy to cover either. Instead I'll go with an alternative handicap, with (-16.0) giving 4/11 odds, i.e. useless odds unless you've a 7-way accy on the go. Fortunately, I do!

As a sidenote, I'd also back France to beat Ireland. Yes, Les Bleus have been appalling thus far. But never underestimate an Irish sporting team's ability to blow it against appalling teams when things are in the shitter for us. And they have been since Simon Zebo and Jonathan Sexton limped off against England. To be fair to Declan Kidney (though he could've handled the selection nightmare following Ronan O'Gara's enforced retirement much, much better), I wouldn't hold him solely responsible. This campaign started tremendously before we were raped by injuries and suspensions. But I doubt my colleague, Dan 'Pitchside' Pitcher will be as sympathetic to his plight: he's promised me that he'll be spewing vitriol in his full Six Nations preview (up before the weekend).

Pick: ENGLAND (4/11 @ -16.0) vs. Italy 


Monday: La Liga Football

This is the bitch about doing a 7-for-7 blog. It sounds great, in theory, but then you realise that you've really got scraps to deal with on both Friday and Monday. Not even the Premier League can muster up some decent Monday Night Football. And why not? Look, all we wanna watch is Gary Neville teach us how football really works anyway, give us any old shite that we can stick on in the background to ignore how shit the real world is. But nope, we get nothing.

So I'm scraping the barrel in going for probably the only game I've the faintest knowledge about. And faint would most definitely be the best word I'd use to describe my knowledge of these two teams, being honest. I'm basing this pick on the top 3 fan result predictions on Goal.com predicting a Granada win. Apologies if you expected anything more, you might've got it if the Premier League or Sky had decided they didn't want the night off.

Pick: Real Zaragoza vs. GRANADA (23/10)


Tuesday: Champions League Football

Neither of Tuesday's Champions League games are a safe bet, by any means. On one hand, you've got a dodgy-if-somewhat-resurgent Schalke 04, who hit an all-time low with a 4-0 thrashing from Bayern a few weeks back, before getting a spring in their step as those above them in the race for the Bundesliga's fourth Champions League stuttered, against a re-vamped Galatasaray bolstered by the winter signings of Didier Drogba and Wesley Sneijder. How pissed would you have been when those transfers went through, by the way, if you were a Schalke fan? They were convinced they'd hit the jackpot with their draw before Christmas, and were now lining up against two recent Champions League winners. You'd favour them, only on the basis that they're at home, have an away goal and Galatasaray are so dominant in Turkey now that the jump in standard of opposition may affect them. But this could end up being a straight shootout.

Milan have had a similar, if slightly better, run of late to Schalke. They began their season with the latest in a seemingly permanent line of Milan-related crises (Inter have since taken the baton), but are now officially the most in-form team in Serie A, having earned 34 points from their last 15 games. They travel to the Nou Camp against a Barca side who've been exposed, after a season of poor performances but favourable results misled many casual fans into thinking they were the same side that dominated under Pep Guardiola. Two Clasico losses following the 1st leg upset in Milan quickly put paid to that myth. They have a great squad, but in reality haven't been a truly great team since Pep left. Super Mario & co could easily do the double over them like Madrid.

But Barca still have Messi. They still have Xavi, Iniesta and can call on proven goalscorers like David Villa if need be. Quality bleeds throughout that squad, too much quality to face a double double of defeats. Hesitantly, I predict that they'll win the game, if not the tie.

Pick: BARCELONA (1/4) vs. AC Milan


Wednesday: Champions League Football

Wednesday's pairing of games doesn't make me feel any more confident. Porto travel to Malaga holding a 1-0 lead over the plucky Spanish outfit. That's another game that could end 4-3 to either side, or promise much only to get lost behind the Sky red button as Dortmund/Shakhtar did earlier this week. I'm not touching it with a bargepole.

You'd think that Bayern, at home, would be an easy pick against an off-form Arsenal side trying to turn around a 3-1 aggregate deficit. And maybe it is. Maybe I'm over-thinking this. As soon as I heard an ITV commentator declare Real Madrid as favourites for the Champions League, the first words out of my mouth were, "Eh...Bayern?" But this pick makes me nervous. Especially if it has the bad luck omen over it if my first six picks were to come in.

Is it because Arsenal nearly overturned another impossible seeming lead at the same stage last year against Milan? Is it because Bayern may also feel that this will just be a case of them showing up to advance? Is it because the collective brain thrust of Jack Wilshire, Theo Walcott and Arsene Wenger have enough within them, regardless of form or external pressure, to surprise us all? I don't know why exactly, but I can feel it in my gut that there's some bigger picture-factor we're not taking into account here.

Bayern are still my favourites to win the Champions League. They're still my pick for the seventh and final bet. It just doesn't sit well with me...

Pick: BAYERN MUNICH (4/11) vs. Arsenal

Rick Nash is a former pro-wrestler who currently DJs for hire, makes piss-poor sports bets and has a community radio show. Altogether, he's a real bum, and you should be ashamed of yourself if you thought this piece was in any way insightful or entertaining. But still, follow him on Twitter and stuff.